Author

Qi-Tai Tan

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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Beyond Average Error through Oracle-Informed Stress Tests for Time-Series Forecasting

Average squared error cannot reveal whether forecasting performance degrades because the future becomes less predictable or because forecasts move farther from the conditional mean. We introduce paired, mechanism-controlled stress tests that decompose changes in expected squared error at each lead time into environment...

Xu Lin, Run-Heng Zuo, Sheng-Xuan Xu et al. · 0 citations

Jul 2026

PATS: Policy-Aware Training Scaffolding for Agentic Reinforcement Learning

This work proposes a policy-centric training paradigm that reframes skills as a dynamic training scaffold and converts rollout groups from the latest policy into evidence cards and uses task-specific evaluation to adjust the context used in subsequent rollouts.

Yipeng Shi, Zhi-Peng Ma, Yue Wang et al. · arXiv.org · 0 citations