Accurate daily predictions of cold hardiness in woody plants are critical in regions where freezing temperatures can damage dormant buds and reduce seasonal yield. Existing biophysical, hybrid, and deep learning models have shown high predictive accuracy when trained on local data but remain largely site-specific. The limited availability of cold hardiness data, coupled with the lack of principled methods for transferring cold hardiness predictions to new regions and cultivars, has limited the broader adoption and practical utility of these approaches, particularly in data-scarce regions. To address these limitations, we propose a cold hardiness prediction framework that learns a transferable latent representation by capturing region-specific variation through learned embeddings. To enable prediction in previously unseen regions, we infer embeddings from (1) text descriptions of the cultivar and growing region, and (2) limited historical observations, supporting both zero-shot and few-shot transfer. Experiments on datasets from six regions across North America demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art cold hardiness prediction methods, yielding more accurate predictions and substantially improving transfer to data-scarce regions.
William Solow, Paola Pesantez-Cabrera, Markus Keller et al.· 0 citations
Outcome-based reinforcement learning provides verified feedback for language-model agents, but assigns trajectory-level advantage uniformly to all decisions, yielding coarse credit over long-horizon interactions. On-policy self-distillation offers finer supervision by re-evaluating sampled behavior with privileged information (PI) available only during training. However, fine-grained supervision is not necessarily fine-grained credit: PI-induced likelihood changes describe how additional information alters policy preference, but do not directly determine how an executable action should inherit the verified task outcome. This creates a supervision-credit gap. Privileged signals may be irrelevant to the current interaction state, operate at a token granularity misaligned with executable decisions, and lack the outcome semantics required for reinforcement. We introduce TASPO, which converts privileged supervision into outcome-grounded action credit. TASPO constructs decision-applicable PI from verified successful experience, aggregates PI-induced likelihood shifts at the executable-action level, and converts relative action support into positive, bounded, mean-preserving weights on the original trajectory advantage. Thus, the verified outcome determines the update direction and average scale, while PI only redistributes credit across actions. Across three agentic benchmarks, TASPO improves over GRPO by 10.6\% and generalizes better to unseen tasks. Further analysis indicates that TASPO reduces supervision mismatch and that action-level assignment stabilizes the policy optimization process. These findings offer the community another interesting perspective.
Jingxiao Yang, Wangjie Gan, Yingxuan Zhuang et al.· 0 citations
Recent advances in large reasoning models (LRMs) have shown that reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) can substantially improve reasoning in mathematics and code, where outcomes can be checked automatically. Extending this progress to open-ended and agentic tasks remains difficult because reliable rewards are harder to obtain and direct human supervision cannot keep pace with the scale and complexity of model-generated experience. This paper studies how LRMs can continue to improve as human supervision gradually recedes from the learning loop. We examine two connected dimensions of this problem. The reward axis traces the development from per-instance human judgments to reusable verifiers and rewards that operate even without human feedback. The experience axis examines how learning can progress from human-curated tasks and environments toward self-generated curricula, constructed environments, and autonomous co-evolution. We connect these dimensions through a five-level ladder from L0 to L4 that identifies which parts of the learning process remain under continued human control. Our analysis further highlights the risks introduced by increasingly autonomous rewards and experience generation, including reward hacking, feedback drift, curriculum collapse, and environment errors. Consequently, we also provide the evaluation around three complementary objects: policy capability, feedback fidelity, and experience quality. This analysis provides a structured account of current approaches to scaling LRMs beyond human supervision and the open problems involved in developing self-sustaining learning systems toward superintelligence. Furthermore, we maintain a continuously updated \href{https://github.com/visitworld123/Awesome-Scaling-LRM-Beyond-Human-Supervision}{GitHub repository} to track the latest advances.
Zhiqin Yang, Jingwen Fu, Yuhan Liu et al.· 0 citations
When a large language model fails a reasoning task, it is often assumed to lack the underlying capability. However, this conflates a genuine absence of reasoning with a late-stage output bottleneck. We observe a consistent readout gap across diverse reasoning benchmarks: hidden-state probes successfully decode correct answers even when native sequence scoring completely collapses due to structural biases. To test whether instance-specific logic survives this collapse, we introduce a diagnostic protocol using a minimal, target-label-free additive correction. Fitting just two parameters on as few as 25 unlabeled examples recovers 9--34 accuracy points for Qwen3.5 models, transferring successfully to OLMo-2-1B and Llama-3.1-8B. Crucially, these recovered decisions persist on hard instances unresolved by simple lexical overlap and significantly exceed count-preserving permutation baselines. Our results show that many apparent zero-shot reasoning deficits are expression failures masking intact internal logic, urging a narrower interpretation of benchmark evaluations.
Agent working memory is heterogeneous. Objects such as instructions, artifacts, tool outputs, and agent-generated state play different semantic roles and exhibit different size, retention, and representation profiles. Recent work has begun to explore memory-management mechanisms that account for such heterogeneity. This work focuses on semantic heterogeneity and studies how it should shape the management and evaluation of working memory in coding agents. Across 55 archived coding-agent trajectories, we find that semantically different working-memory objects exhibit distinct retention and compression behavior. This heterogeneity motivates semantically informed memory management. We study two semantically informed strategies: an object-aware compression policy and a retrieval-based policy. Their evaluation shows that calibration gains may not transfer to held-out tasks, and that equal token budgets do not imply equal delivered context or management cost. A real-system replay further exposes serving limits that nominal budgets alone do not capture. Together, these results show why semantic structure matters for agent working memory and why evaluating memory-management strategies requires more than a nominal token budget. We organize these lessons into four levels: stored state, delivered context, management work, and task or process outcome.
Le Chen, Zishen Wan, Baixi Sun et al.· 0 citations
AI agents in partially observable environments need to coordinate active sensing with working memory to maintain an evolving perceptual state. However, existing benchmarks struggle to isolate this perceptual-state construction and interpretation capability because they introduce physical and control complexities. We address this with MNIST-PRO, a benchmark that isolates agentic perception by converting MNIST digit recognition into a sequential, glimpse-based search task with lookback constraints. We evaluate ten multimodal models across four memory representations, including raw visual history, textual states, structured metric grid maps, and a consolidated visual canvas. While models excel under full observability, partial observability exposes a clear performance gap. We identify three distinct bottlenecks. First, perceptual-state construction and interpretation present a challenge, as agents struggle to integrate fragmented glimpses. Second, agents often stop exploring before they see the full sequence. Third, models often fail to revise early, incorrect beliefs even when faced with subsequent contradictory evidence. These results show that simply acquiring visual evidence is not enough. Agents must also be able to build and update a reliable perceptual state.
Vernon Toh, Navonil Majumder, Zhengyuan Liu et al.· 0 citations
Accurate action models are critical for effective planning. Existing action-model learning methods largely assume simple action representations or become computationally intractable when learning conditional and quantified effects. We present Online Hypothesis-Driven Conditional Action Model Learning (OHCAM), an online approach for learning action models with conditional and quantified effects from limited interactions with the environment. OHCAM maintains a belief over hypothesized action models and actively selects informative actions to reduce uncertainty by maximizing disagreement among competing hypotheses, while being robust to noisy observations. To enable scalability, OHCAM begins with a small set of simple action model hypotheses and expands to more complex conditions only when the current hypotheses become inconsistent with the data. Experiments on six benchmark planning domains demonstrate that OHCAM is sample efficient in learning action models that solve substantially more tasks than baselines, even with observation noise. We validate OHCAM on two tasks using a Kinova Gen3 robot, demonstrating the real-world applicability of our approach.
Jeffrey Jewett, William Solow, Sandhya Saisubramanian· 0 citations
Masked diffusion language models predict tokens from a partially observed response canvas, enabling bidirectional conditioning and parallel token refinement. Yet standard masked-diffusion decoders use a rigid inference interface: the number of masked positions allocated to the answer is fixed before generation begins. Choosing this length is difficult. A short canvas can truncate reasoning or code, while a long canvas wastes computation and can perturb denoising. We introduce CARVE (Counterfactual-Aware Reveal with Verified Expansion), a training-free variable-length algorithm for masked diffusion LMs. Starting from a shorter canvas, CARVE can grow the response during decoding by inserting additional [MASK] positions. Rather than keeping every insertion, CARVE tests a candidate expanded canvas and asks a counterfactual question: would the model make similar predictions for the unresolved positions in the original canvas if the extra masked space were present? The inserted masks are kept only when they induce low Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence on aligned unresolved positions. This makes length growth a verified stability decision rather than a pure confidence heuristic. CARVE applies without retraining to both full-canvas and blockwise diffusion decoders. Across code generation and mathematical reasoning benchmarks, CARVE consistently improves average performance over fixed-length baselines across all evaluated model families. Crucially, CARVE achieves these accuracy gains while reducing inference cost, reaching half the FLOPs of fixed-length decoding in some settings.
Wail Bouhedja, Amr Mohamed, Guokan Shang· 0 citations
World models are becoming core infrastructure for embodied intelligence, with action-conditioned video generation providing controllable predictions of how scenes evolve after agent interventions. Yet existing models are commonly trained with space-time-uniform mean squared error, allowing abundant background tokens to dominate the gradient while sparse interaction dynamics remain under-optimized; such uniform fitting rewards reconstructing appearance rather than learning how actions change the world. We introduce Causal Action Effect Reweighting (CAER), a general training paradigm that redistributes supervision toward the tokens whose predicted future is causally affected by the action. CAER contrasts the model's own predictions with and without action conditioning to localize these tokens online, then normalizes the resulting effect map into a weight that preserves the total coefficient mass and changes only where it is spent. This online signal requires no external annotations or offline preprocessing, avoids additional data-processing time, and scales naturally with model and dataset size. Experiments across heterogeneous action-conditioned world-model tasks show that CAER converges to better solutions than uniform MSE training, with consistent improvements in the physical consistency, controllability, and visual quality of generated videos.
Jian-Jie Fang, Xvyuan Liu, Ziyou Wang et al.· 0 citations
Dakar's residential rental market remains poorly documented despite its economic and social importance: 54.4% of households are renters, compared to 23.3% nationally. This study develops a complete machine learning pipeline to predict residential rents in Dakar, from data collection to model interpretation. An original dataset of 1,507 rental listings was built through systematic web scraping and a documented cleaning pipeline, then enriched with four purpose-built features, including a luxury score and a keyword-based quality score. Five models were compared: linear regression, Random Forest (baseline), XGBoost, and LightGBM optimized through Bayesian optimization with Optuna, using leakage-free KFold target encoding for location. The optimized XGBoost model achieved the best performance with an $R^2$ of 0.847, an MAE of 210,902 XOF, and an RMSE of 324,195 XOF. Feature importance was assessed using native XGBoost gain and SHAP values, revealing a substantial difference in the ranking of location, which appears as a minor predictor by gain but as the second most influential variable by SHAP. This result carries methodological implications for hedonic studies using target-encoded categorical variables. This study provides an interpretable benchmark for Dakar's rental market and highlights several avenues for improvement, including the integration of geospatial features and conformal prediction.
Fairness audits in clinical Artificial Intelligence convert continuous fairness metrics into binary pass-or-fail verdicts against operational thresholds, where hospital governance boards, payers, and regulators act on the resulting verdicts. Such audits are repeated over time and across hospital sites, thus the same verdict can flip between pass and fail across audits. Existing uncertainty methods such as Bayesian posteriors, bootstrap confidence intervals, and permutation tests address verdict instability only at the continuous-metric level. Converting metric-level uncertainty into a verdict-stability claim remains a manual step that scales poorly across the (model, metric, attribute) cells an audit covers. Existing uncertainty methods also leave open whether bias-mitigation steps, such as reweighing or per-group threshold shifts, yield a stable passing verdict at the cost of model discrimination measured as AUROC or AUPRC.To address this verdict-stability gap, we propose VFR-Audit, a framework built around the Verdict Flip Rate (VFR), a scalar bounded between 0 and 0.5 that measures the probability of verdict reversal under stratified bootstrap resampling. VFR-Audit reports VFR alongside three reliability axes, namely within-cohort resampling stability, audit-size sensitivity, and cross-hospital verdict agreement via Fleiss' kappa.
Production agent skills are directory bundles, not isolated prompts. The root is loaded at activation; references, schemas, scripts, assets, and nested subskills are loaded only when an execution path needs them. Compressing only the root misses most deployment cost and may move branch-specific details into the always-loaded context. Flattening instead destroys progressive-loading boundaries.
We introduce \method, an evaluation-free compressor for complete, progressively loaded skill bundles. It leaves the agent harness unchanged and emits an ordinary directory. The method combines two safeguards. First, it compresses \emph{across files}, removing content from a reference or subskill when the root or a declared environment contract already provides it. Second, it preserves routing, so every required file and directly callable entry remains reachable after rewriting. Users can configure \method along two independent axes. \emph{One-Shot} mode rebuilds the full bundle; \emph{Continual} mode reuses state and applies Zip-on-Write after each evolution patch. \emph{Persistent} compression rewrites the shipped bundle to reduce storage and runtime context. \emph{Transient} compression keeps that bundle byte-identical and builds a task-specific view, reducing only per-run context after build cost. Entry contracts mark private, public, and conditional resources; a multi-entry audit preserves standalone public subskills.
On a production content-moderation skill evaluated by our industrial multi-round harness, \method removes \hl{38\%} of skill bundle tokens and \hl{10.4\%} of end-to-end per-run tokens with no quality loss, while an unprotected 71\% configuration loses up to 26 accuracy points to one-sided false positives. On a multi-entry bundle, \method effeciently reduces token cost while near-perfectly preserving every route and public entry.
Xiaofan Bai, Chao Liu, Hongqiang Lin et al.· 0 citations
