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artificial intelligence

19,710 papers

#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Benchmarking Forecasting Agents on Yesterday's Tomorrows

Evaluating agents built on eight recent models, it is found that retrieval improves the Brier score of all eight in every retrieval setting and lifts the leading agents to the market consensus on the 54 questions linked to Polymarket, with the best three scoring slightly above it.

Yuxuan Wang, Yi-Shu Wang, Jia-Qi Deng · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

The First Few Tokens Matter: Understanding Chain-of-Thought Controllability

This work investigates the source of an entropy collapse in the first few tokens following the opening thinking tag and exploits this mechanism to recover CoT controllability through two inference-time interventions on initial tokens, finding that the relationship with monitorability depends on the evaluation.

Hugh Van Deventer, Dmitrii Troitskii, L. Ruis · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Review Oct 2026

DiRAFT: Privacy-Aware Financial Transcript Synthesis from Aggregate Discourse Priors

DiRAFT (Discourse Realization from Aggregate First-order Transitions), which extracts financial concept graphs and records the order in which concepts are first introduced, is introduced, which pools adjacent concept transitions across training records and samples new graph plans from aggregate transition, starting-con...

Yun-Bai Zhang, Yun-Yi Gao, Han-Tai Shiao · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Agentic World Modeling for Agent Test-time Scaling without Environment Replica

Interactive, read-grounded simulation is established as a practical foundation for safe and scalable agentic test-time scaling in shared, non-resettable environments and reforms next-observation prediction as a multi-turn evidence-acquisition task.

Wen-Di Li, Huseyin A. Inan, Wei-Ning Chen et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Towards Portable Specification of the Agent Harness

The harness is decompose into eight functional components that can be specified and compared across systems, and a portable specification framework is proposed that records which model ran in which harness.

Nicolas Gertler, Claudio Novelli, Luciano Floridi · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Review Oct 2026

ChatGPT as a Surveillance Assistant? An Exploratory Case Study of AI-Assisted Surveillance Risks

An exploratory case study of what potentially harmful surveillance assistance looks like in ChatGPT's public web interface and finds that even when ChatGPT states a refusal, it may still supply detailed instructions, working code, or architectural guidance alongside brief ethical caveats.

Ayana Hussain, Nicholas Vincent · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Incongruence-Aware Evaluation of Multimodal Speech Emotion Recognition in Audio Large Language Models

Mapping text and audio into a shared valence-arousal-dominance space, a continuous, threshold-free incongruence score is converted into a continuous, threshold-free incongruence score with a two-component Gaussian mixture, and validated against human judgement.

Feng-Ji Jing, Guy Laban · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Circumventing the Computational Hardness of Computational Arbitrage

This work formalizes computational arbitrage as an allocation problem and proves that it is generally NP-hard, but shows that the optimal allocation can be computed efficiently under a natural diminishing-returns condition on how model performance scales with inference spending.

Nastaran Okati, Ricardo Olmedo, Moritz Hardt · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Beyond Plausible Prediction: Safety Sufficiency in Web World Models

SafeWebWorld is introduced, a benchmark for evaluating safety sufficiency across five web-safety domains through action-conditioned futures, policy-decisive evidence, and policy-conditioned decisions, and it is shown that aggregate recoverability does not imply robust fine-grained authorisation behaviour.

Zhi-Fei Hu, Alexandra I. Cristea, A. Bibi et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Open access Apr 2025

Beyond public access in LLM pre-training data

The results suggest that GPT-4o, OpenAI’s more recent and capable model in the authors' sample, exhibits patterns consistent with recognition of non-public books, and support disclosure requirements for pre-training data provenance and formal licensing markets for training content.

Sruly Rosenblat, Tim O'Reilly, Ilan Strauss · 0 citations

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