Probabilistic downscaling must represent kilometer-scale structure left unresolved by a deterministic regional prediction. We introduce an analog-initialized latent transport method that uses historical regional residuals as a meteorologically informed empirical source. A frozen graph neural network predicts the determ...
Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observati...
Erik Wikingsson, Martin Andrae, Tomas Landelius et al.· 0 citations
Existing machine learning weather forecasting models typically generate forecasts through autoregressive rollouts at a fixed temporal resolution. While highly efficient for long-range prediction, this formulation can suffer from severe error accumulation when used with shorter time steps and does not explicitly encode...
Maria Marchenko, Martin Andrae, Fredrik Lindsten et al.· 0 citations
The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, roughly from two weeks to two months ahead, is a critical forecast window for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. Yet, it is widely known as the `predictability desert'. Recent AI weather models excel up to two weeks ahead but deteriorate beyond, large...
Chenyu Dong, Gianmarco Mengaldo· 0 citations
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Rare weather regime transitions pose a challenge for data-driven modeling due to class imbalance. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep learning emulator for a prototypical system with regime transitions, the stochastic Holton--Mass model of stratospheric variability, and analyze the structure of its learned l...
C. Daniel Boscu, Daniel Hernandez, Fabio Alvarez Ventura et al.· 0 citations
We present Varda-single-1.0, a medium-range data-driven weather prediction system built for the Alpine domain. It provides hourly deterministic regional forecasts on a mesh of 1 km resolution and global forecasts on a 31 km mesh. The system comprises two independently trained stretched-grid Graph Transformer models wit...
Alberto Pennino, Francesco Zanetta, Michele Cattaneo et al.· 0 citations
Which meteorological processes control exposure to fugitive gases downwind of a source, and on what timescales, have largely been inferred from dispersion theory and partial field evidence. Here we show that the meteorological drivers of elevated hydrogen sulphide (H$_2$S) exposure at a long-monitored European landfill...
Timothy C. Pearce, David J. T. Smith, Alec Dobney et al.· 0 citations
Extreme heat is where urban adaptation needs kilometer-scale data the most, but the simulations training a downscaler can cost more than they save, and how much is needed has not been identified. We measured it with CASPER, a U-Net with a structure-preserving loss downscaling 32 km reanalysis to 1 km temperature, humid...
Ahmed Marey, Henry Lu, Abhishek Gaur et al.· 0 citations
This note is a technical companion to a previously published preprint describing an Attention Residual U-Net that postprocesses deterministic forecasts from The Weather Company's Global and Regional Atmospheric Forecast (GRAF) model into probabilistic hourly precipitation forecasts. It documents what has changed in tha...
The two-dimensional sphere embedded in three-dimensional Euclidean space S2, plays a central role in a variety of scientific and engineering domains, including geophysics, planetary science, geodesy, atmospheric physics, quantum chemistry, cosmology, and virtual reality, among many others. As machine learning increasin...
Thorsten Kurth, M. Rietmann, M. Bisson et al.· 0 citations
As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenario...
Christopher B. Womack, Shahine Bouabid, Andrei Sokolov et al.· 0 citations
Cloud robotics is an innovative field that leverages cloud technologies-including cloud computing (CC), cloud storage, deep learning, big data, and the Internet of Things to augment the capabilities of robotics. This integration facilitates the execution of robotic functions through a converged infrastructure and share...
Shahnawaz Ahmad, Shahadat Hussain, Khalid Anwar et al.· International Conference on...· 2 citations
