Machine learning systems are increasingly corrected while they run, and the decision of when to intervene is increasingly delegated to statistical monitors. Anytime-valid inference promises evidence that can be acted on at any moment, exactly the guarantee this setting needs, and it is moving from theory into deployed monitoring. Conformal test martingales are the change-detection instrument, and Ville's inequality caps their false-alarm probability on exchangeable data. The guarantee is conditional. A deployment inherits it only if the stream it monitors behaves exchangeably. The premise is hardest to satisfy where these monitors are most useful, on dependent data and inside loops where the monitor modifies the learner whose scores it reads. It is also rarely measured. We measure it in a pre-specified case study, where such a monitor gates the online updates of a Kalman adapter correcting frozen time-series foundation models on five forecasting streams. On exchangeable synthetic streams, the same implementation fires in at most 1 of 60 runs. On the real streams, at alpha = 0.05, 135 of 135 clean-stream runs fired. The construction does not explain the firing; the failure comes from the deployed score stream itself. Repeated fires hold the gate's drift response active, and the gated filter amplifies the very transient it was designed to prevent. The component worth keeping makes no validity claim. Huber-style gating of the filter's own updates cuts isolated-spike degradation by an order of magnitude with no dataset specific tuning. Anytime-valid methods proposed for dependent data should therefore be accompanied by null-calibration controls and mechanism traces.
Deep networks trained on noisy labels simultaneously generalize on clean data and memorize flipped labels. These are usually conflated as pressures on one capacity. We present Topo^2, a measurement framework that makes them causally separable, measurable, and law-governed. Persistent-homology H1 structure of the representation space separates into a within-class manifold channel (a function of the training stopping point) and a cross-class channel (a monotone readout of memorized flipped samples). An intervention, the FM0 prescription (zero loss on flipped samples from epoch 0), reaches each setting's generalization ceiling while memorizing essentially nothing. Within the framework we establish a law set with graded evidence: (L2) FM0 separation prescription (9/9); (L1) the within-channel as a training-position function (mid-rise 6/6; convergence-back CIFAR 3/3, SVHN 2/3); (L3) a ring-construction identity (definitional, not a law); and TLS (memory-generalization topological layering): memory is causally additive, anchored (silencing clean collapses the representation), invertible (stripping memory restores near-ceiling generalization), and quantitatively billable (the memorization cost law, effective slope coefficient C ~ 0.38 at the reference capacity: CIFAR-10 0.3801 / SVHN 0.3806 / CIFAR-100 0.384 / VGG 0.3715, capacity-dependent in general and traced to clean-sample feature displacement). We also publish the framework's boundaries: a falsification ledger of nine dead ends, and an instrument-vindication section that excludes six families of global statistics as explanations of the within-channel. The framework turns "memorization" from an ill-defined capacity into a measurable, separable, invertible topological layer.
Molecular toxicity prediction is increasingly used to prioritise compounds before experimental testing, but conventional benchmark performance can overstate practical utility when structurally related molecules occur across training and test folds. We introduce ToxLens, a reproducible multi-task graph-learning framework for 11 toxicity endpoints spanning Ames mutagenicity, acute oral toxicity, hERG inhibition, and Tox21 nuclear-receptor and stress-response assays. The workflow combines conservative chemical curation, sphere-exclusion filtering, a leakage-aware UMAP-HDBSCAN split, parallel graph and global-feature encoders joined by late concatenation, temperature-scaled Monte Carlo dropout with conformal-style prediction sets, applicability-domain analysis, and SHAP-guided toxicophore discovery with occlusion controls. On the leakage-controlled test fold, a five-seed soft-voting ensemble achieved a Matthews correlation coefficient score of 0.44, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.83, and an area under the precision-recall curve score of 0.58. It exceeded four ECFP4-based shallow baselines on all 11 endpoints under the same split and validation-based threshold-selection protocol. Controlled ablations showed that the global pathway was important, whereas late concatenation outperformed the tested gated and feature-wise linear modulation fusion variants. Conformal-style prediction sets revealed substantial endpoint-specific variation in set efficiency, and discrimination and calibration improved with similarity to the training domain. Retraining on fixed published Tox21 Challenge and TDA folds produced competitive, but not uniformly state-of-the-art, performance. SHAP-guided occlusion and consensus subgraph mining yielded model-derived structural hypotheses, 44 of which contained at least one occurrence that passed the predefined counterfactual criteria.
Magnus H. Str{\o}mme, Alex G. C. de S\'a, David B. Ascher· 0 citations
Multimodal geometry reasoning requires VLMs to extract precise visual relations and preserve them through multi-step deduction. Existing free-form traces obscure the decisions that determine the answer, and trajectory-level reinforcement learning distributes a single terminal signal across the entire response. We introduce credit-addressable reasoning, in which the semantic units exposed during inference also define where learning compares alternatives and assigns credit. We instantiate this principle with Code-CoT, which retains the diagram, represents visual relations as line-addressable executable code, and organizes reasoning into typed events, and CE-GRPO, which selects event boundaries using structural priors and type-normalized entropy, samples complete continuations from shared prefixes, and converts outcome differences into localized advantages. Across nine geometry benchmarks, CE-GRPO achieves an average accuracy of 76.04, outperforming Qwen3-VL-8B and trajectory-level GRPO by $8.09$ and 3.43 points, respectively. Its relative advantage increases with the number of intermediate events, demonstrating the value of representation--optimization co-design for long, dependency-heavy multimodal reasoning.
Jiani Guo, Junjie Wang, Jie Wu et al.· 0 citations
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We compare six self-supervised pretext tasks for infant cry analysis under a fixed budget, meaning the same compact encoder of 1.17M parameters, the same 115 hours of license-verified public pretraining audio, and the same evaluation protocol for every candidate. On cry detection the reconstructive objectives dominate, and a linear probe over a masked-spectrogram encoder reaches 0.988 AUC with subject-wise splits even though the encoder never observed a cry during pretraining. On cry-reason classification over donateacry, the de facto public benchmark for cry reasons, every encoder performs at chance (0.38 to 0.54 macro AUC over 5 classes), and neither domain adaptation on 1.8 hours of real cries nor end-to-end fine-tuning moves the result. Since a frozen HuBERT-base with 80 times more parameters shows the same pattern, the bottleneck must sit in the labels and not in model capacity. We then reproduce the 90\%+ accuracies of the donateacry literature on our own system by changing nothing but the evaluation protocol: clip-wise splits raise accuracy to 85.2% (barely above the 83.8% majority-class baseline), and applying augmentation before splitting raises it to 97.9%, matching the reported state of the art, from the same model that measures 0.49 macro AUC under subject-wise splits. Under leakage-free splits, a twentyfold augmentation of the labeled set (vocoder speaker perturbation and noise mixing, 21 hours) leaves cross-subject AUC unchanged: for this task the effective sample size is the number of infants. We release code, seeds and per-clip license manifests.
Click-through rate (CTR) models vary in feature-interaction design, yet their top networks usually remain a single multilayer perceptron shared by all examples. Heterogeneous user, item, and context subgroups therefore update the same parameters; weakly aligned learning signals make the aggregate gradient a compromise among competing directions. We study the competition on Avazu with 4 models and 4 semantic fields. Across all architectures, semantic subgroups show lower Top-NN gradient cosine similarity than random groups matched by sample size and label ratio, with reductions of 0.23-0.37.
This competition motivates input-conditioned experts, but directly replacing an established Dense mapping changes its initial function, sharing pattern, and capacity, obscuring the source of gains. We introduce PRIME (Plug-in Residual Input-conditioned Mixture of Experts), a Dense-anchored mixture of low-rank residual experts. PRIME anchors the original prediction and uses zero-residual initialization to match the Dense baseline exactly at training onset. Input-dependent routing weights low-rank experts for example-specific logit corrections; multi-bag aggregation and EMA load biases stabilize conditional estimation.
We evaluate PRIME on held-out Avazu and Criteo test sets across 13 CTR architectures and five paired seeds. Median paired AUC gains are +0.0022 and +0.0066, with LogLoss reductions of 0.0011 and 0.0081, respectively. On FiBiNET and DCNv2, PRIME outperforms APG in all ten seed-level AUC comparisons while using fewer parameters and lower inference latency on both backbones. These results show that function-preserving conditional residuals add input-dependent capacity while preserving the Dense path and its optimization stability. Code is available at https://github.com/YH-learning/PRIME.
Heng Yao, Siyun Hou, Tianying Liu et al.· 0 citations
Recent offline reinforcement learning (RL) studies report policies that outperform physician decisions on clinical outcomes. We conduct a systematic, partially crossed evaluation of five offline RL algorithm families and 14 reward designs in 44,894 post-2018 acute ischemic stroke patients from a nationwide registry (N = 129,033).
Standard Fitted Q-Evaluation (FQE) yields an apparent policy-improvement estimate of +0.0069; adding an Early Neurological Deterioration penalty increases it to +0.0101. We identify reward-embedded confounding, in which a proxy terminal reward encodes baseline severity and prognosis as well as treatment efficacy. A 2 x 2 factorial analysis finds that terminal reward confounding accounts for 218.6% of the observed signal change, so its removal overshoots the null.
After DML-inspired GBM reward residualization, the FQE estimate attenuates to +0.0033 (p = 0.132), and full deconfounding yields +0.0025 (p = 0.291). FQE-based diagnostics, T-learner analyses, and direct recurrence analyses converge away from a clinically meaningful aggregate improvement. A 1-year mRS factorial analysis replicates the attenuation. We provide an empirically motivated six-step evaluation checklist. NIHSS-stratified heterogeneity is hypothesis-generating for prospective trial design; hospital-level disagreement does not persist after full reward deconfounding.
We give a complete characterization of equivariant multi-head self-attention (MHSA): if an MHSA layer is equivariant to a symmetry group $G$, then $G$ can only act by permuting head-clusters, with QK and OV matrices satisfying an equivariance constraint tied to the group action. As a consequence, we prove that any fixed MHSA architecture that achieves exact equivariance by polynomially parameterizing unconstrained MHSA parameters inevitably leads to expressivity loss within the class of equivariant maps: the equivariance locus of unconstrained MHSA forms a union of extremely many Zariski-irreducible components in a reduced parameter space, and any single architecture covers at most one. For $G=D_4$ acting on $C$ copies of the regular representation as the token feature space, we show that there are $\Omega(C^{64})$ components for eight attention heads.
Goal-conditioned reinforcement learning struggles with long horizons when rewards are sparse. While a planner can provide subgoals to guide a low-level policy, its use at test time may introduce practical subgoal management difficulties. An alternative paradigm utilizes a high-level planner to assist learning, while the policy remains conditioned only on the final goal, enabling planner-free deployment. Among these methods, Reinforcement Learning with Imagined Subgoals (RIS) introduces a regularization term that encourages the policy to take the same actions for the final goal as it does for an intermediate goal. This regularization, however, may lead to goal-chaining issues when intermediate goals are low-dimensional. Potential-based reward shaping (PBRS) translates plans into an additional reward while ensuring that the optimal policy remains unchanged. Yet, it can generate deceptive rewards in terminal states. We study these failure cases and first propose an alternative reward shaping method (RS) that removes these deceptive rewards at the expense of theoretical guarantees of PBRS. Similar to this RS variant, we then propose another method named Locally-Guided Actor Critic (LG-AC) that rewards the agent for reaching intermediate goals. Unlike RS, where intermediate rewards are implicit in the shaping signal, we explicitly condition a value estimator on the full sequence of intermediate goals but represent the value function as a sum of subgoal-conditioned value functions, enabling dense hindsight relabeling. We evaluate all these methods in tasks with challenging goal-chaining requirements and empirically highlight specific cases in which either action regularization or reward shaping yield low performance, while LG-AC achieves the best overall performance across tasks.
Existing GNN quantization methods suffer from considerable quantization overhead, which severely limits their practical usage in real-world scenarios. To this end, we present TopGQ, an accurate post-training GNN quantization framework, alleviating redundant quantization overhead. We propose dual-axis scale absorption, which enables activation quantization along both the outer and inner dimensions by merging one into the adjacency matrix. On top of that, we introduce TopPIN, a proxy for nodes' local structure, and use it to group nodes with similar topology during quantization. Experimental results show that TopGQ reduces quantization time by an order of magnitude while preserving accuracy.
Dain Kwon, Kanghyun Choi, Hyeyoon Lee et al.· 0 citations
Global food security and sustainable climate action increasingly rely on robust, scalable agricultural monitoring. Earth observation foundation models have emerged as powerful, label-efficient tools across general remote sensing domains, yet early attempts to deploy them for agricultural applications have yielded surprisingly poor results. We hypothesize that this performance gap stems from the extreme heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes and the inherent inability of current earth observation foundation models to adapt to task-specific nuances. In this work, we systematically evaluate two critical bottlenecks hindering the deployment of foundation models in agricultural tasks, benchmarking two earth observation foundation models, a foundation model designed for tabular data, and conventional supervised baselines across seven real-world agricultural datasets spanning yield prediction, phenology estimation, and crop classification. First, we identify a pretraining-deployment modality gap: agricultural downstream tasks frequently require diverse, non-imagery data modalities that earth observation foundation models are architecturally unequipped to ingest, while a foundation model built for tabular data handles this heterogeneity more naturally. Second, we formalize the agricultural task space across five structural axes to demonstrate why current models fail to generalize reliably, resulting in highly unstable model rankings across evaluation settings. By characterizing these structural and modal gaps, our insights highlight the friction between general-purpose architectures and specialized agricultural downstream data, providing a strategic roadmap for developing the next generation of domain-aware foundation models.
Vishal Nedungadi, Xingguo Xiong, Marc Ru{\ss}wurm et al.· 0 citations
Accurate uncertainty estimation is essential for machine learning systems de- ployed in high-stakes domains such as medicine. Traditional approaches primarily rely on probability outputs from trained models (point predictions), which provide no formal guarantees on prediction coverage and often require additional calibra- tion techniques to improve reliability. In contrast, conformal prediction (region prediction) offers a principled alternative by generating prediction sets with finite- sample validity guarantees, ensuring that the ground truth is contained within the set at a specified confidence level. In this study, we explore the impact of pre-training approach, dataset scale and domain on both point and region-level uncertainty quantification, by studying domain-specific vision medical foundation models vs. general domain vision foundation models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation across foundation models trained on retinal, histopathological, and Chest X-Rays data, applying various calibration techniques. Our results demonstrate that (1) pre-training on higher-quality domain-specific datasets along with self-supervised learning leads to better-calibrated point predictions than general domain pre-training, (2) stan- dard re-calibration methods alone cannot fully mitigate uncertainty discrepancies across models trained on different data sources, (3) domain-specific foundation model can lead to more efficient conformal prediction. These findings highlight the importance of careful model selection and the inte- gration of both point and region prediction to enhance the reliability and trust- worthiness of medical AI systems. Our work underscores the need for a holistic approach to uncertainty quantification in recent development of medical vision foundation model, ensuring robust and interpretable AI-driven decision-making.
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
A new method for surgically removing training examples from a model reveals that as datasets grow, the link between what a model learns and what it produces dissolves.
