DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTION OF SATELLITE-OBSERVED AVALANCHE ACTIVITY FROM SNOWPACK SIMULATIONS

Abstract

Avalanche forecasting requires knowledge of snowpack conditions and recent avalanche activity, but field observations are sparse across large mountain regions. We explore whether SNOWPACK simulations can predict avalanche activity mapped by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). We compiled five winters of Sentinel-1 avalanche detections across Norway and parts of Sweden, alongside SNOWPACK simulations forced by numerical weather predictions on a 20 x 20 km grid at different elevations and predefined slope angles. A transformer used five days of SNOWPACK outputs to predict the following day's SAR-detected Avalanche Activity Index (SAR-AAI). This index weights larger debris more heavily, spreads detections across possible occurrence dates and normalises by modelled runout area. The model was trained on four winters and evaluated on one validation winter. Regional mean predicted and reference SAR-AAI correlated at r = 0.803 after averaging over complete six-day periods. The model followed broad changes in time and space but produced smoother predictions and underestimated the strongest activity. Agreement at the 20 km cell scale was weaker (r = 0.549) after the same averaging. These results come from a single training run without evaluation on an untouched winter. Satellite observations also contain missed and false detections and uncertain timing. The results therefore do not establish operational forecast skill, but suggest that regional SNOWPACK simulations contain information about broad variations in satellite-observed avalanche activity.