Interpretable Multi-Instance Learning Enables Early Prediction of Key Molecular Alterations from Routine Flow Cytometry in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Abstract

Background: Molecular testing for NPM1 and FLT3-ITD mutations guides critical early treatment decisions in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but results can take weeks, long after these decisions must be made. Flow cytometry, already performed within hours of admission as part of routine care, may carry enough signal to predict these mutations directly, without added cost or delay. Methods: We developed an interpretable multi-instance learning classifier based on a decision tree, in which each patient sample is modeled as a collection of individual cells and mutation status is inferred from cell-level predictions. The model was benchmarked against a random forest trained on clinical variables and a deep convolutional neural network adapted for multitube flow cytometry data. Performance was assessed by cross-validation on a discovery cohort of 197 patients and tested on an independent cohort of 161 patients, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and positive predictive value. Results: In cross-validation on the discovery cohort, the MIL model achieved mean AUROCs of 0.96 (SD=0.05) for NPM1 and 0.86 (SD=0.10) for FLT3-ITD, outperforming the clinical baseline and matching deep learning approaches. The model then successfully generalized to the independent test cohort of 161 patients, reaching AUROCs of 0.90 (NPM1) and 0.82 (FLT3-ITD), with positive predictive values of 0.87 and 0.68, respectively. Cell-level interpretation recovered established immunophenotypic signatures (CD33${}^{+}$ /CD34___ for NPM1-mutated cases, CD33${}^{+}$ /low side-scatter for FLT3-ITD), directly linking model predictions to known biology. Conclusions: These results show that an interpretable model applied to data already collected in routine care can predict AML molecular status within hours, offering a practical route to earlier, biology-informed treatment decisions.