The key predictors and moderators of academic success in higher education: A systematic literature review

Abstract

This systematic literature review synthesised empirical studies published between 2016 and 2025 on conceptual and theoretical orientations, predictors, mediators, and moderators related to academic success in undergraduate higher education. Searches were conducted in ERIC, Scopus, and Web of Science using Boolean search strings. Following PRISMA 2020 procedures and predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, 40 quantitative and mixed‐methods studies were included in the final synthesis. Academic success was most frequently operationalised through grade point average, course grades, credits earned, assignment performance, persistence, and retention. Sample sizes ranged from 71 to 5016 participants. The findings show that recent studies have predominantly used micro‐level, psychological, motivational, self‐determination, self‐efficacy, personality, and technology‐oriented approaches, whereas broader institutional and persistence‐oriented perspectives were rarely applied. Frequently reported predictors included prior academic achievement, socio‐economic status, learning strategies, self‐directed learning, academic emotions, motivation, self‐efficacy, personality, e‐learning readiness, and technology‐related behaviours. Excessive social engagement and smartphone addiction were generally negatively associated with academic achievement. Only a limited number of studies examined moderators, with gender and sense of academic control emerging as relevant moderating factors in some studies. Overall, the findings suggest that academic success in higher education should be examined through integrated models that combine individual, contextual, institutional, and technological perspectives. Future research should prioritise longitudinal, experimental, mixed‐predictor, and meta‐analytic designs to clarify causal pathways and the relative strength of predictors. Rationale for this study: Research on academic success in higher education is fragmented across conceptual and theoretical orientations, predictor domains, mediating mechanisms, and moderating factors. This systematic review synthesises recent quantitative and mixed‐method evidence to clarify how academic success has been conceptualised and investigated. Why the new findings matter: The findings identify dominant micro‐level and psychologically oriented approaches, underused institutional and persistence‐oriented approaches, frequently reported predictors, and important methodological gaps. Implications for higher education stakeholders: The review suggests that academic success should be addressed through integrated models that combine individual, contextual, institutional, and technological factors. For researchers, the findings highlight the need for longitudinal, mixed‐predictor, and meta‐analytic studies. For instructors, counsellors, administrators, and policymakers, the review provides evidence for designing tailored interventions that address students' diverse academic, social, cultural, and digital needs.