Experts’ Opinion on Strategic Public Health CBRN Emergency Management Using Artificial Intelligence in the Middle East and North Africa Region
TL;DR
Policy analysis examines why prevailing case-level and ministry-siloed governance is insufficient for population-level CBRN readiness, weighs alternative coordination models, and outlines an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled, centrally coordinated public-health strategy adapted to the region’s heterogeneity and resource constraints.
Abstract
Abstract Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) incidents present escalating risks across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) amid geopolitical instability, cross-border threats, and evolving non-state actor capabilities. This policy analysis examines why prevailing case-level and ministry-siloed governance is insufficient for population-level CBRN readiness, weighs alternative coordination models, and outlines an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled, centrally coordinated public-health strategy adapted to the region’s heterogeneity and resource constraints. We propose a National Emergency Management Advisory Council to provide statutory inter-ministerial authority and stewardship for a National CBRN Dashboard that delivers decision support, inventory tracking, simulation, and rapid triage. We situate this within existing backgrounds and analyze legal authority, financing, data governance, and feasibility in low-resource settings. While prototype AI models report high accuracy for antidote optimization, agent classification, and triage, we argue these metrics reflect controlled research, not operational readiness, and require external validation, robustness testing, and cybersecurity safeguards. A phased, evidence-graded roadmap is proposed to move MENA CBRN management from reactive to predictive and adaptive models.