Developing methodological conditions for assessing management decisions to improve the reliability of the Northern Sea Route transport and logistics system
Abstract
This article examines the task of evaluating management decisions aimed at improving the reliability of the Northern Sea Route’s transportation and logistics system. The specific nature of the Northern Sea Route requires a clarification of the composition of stakeholders, criteria, and possible areas of impact. Infrastructure reliability, continuity of traffic flows, safety, economic efficiency, adaptability, and organizational feasibility are used to compare the decisions. The evaluation framework includes five broad groups of stakeholders and four alternatives: infrastructure modernization, route and capacity redundancy, development of information and analytical monitoring, and improvement of interorganizational coordination. The study separates two analytical tasks. The first is the multicriteria comparison of managerial alternatives. The second is an economic assessment of the option that receives the highest priority. Expected losses provide information for comparisons under the cost-effectiveness criterion, whereas net present value is calculated at the next stage. The proposed sequence is intended for further testing with expert judgments and operational data from the Northern Sea Route system.