Multiscale modeling of T cell exhaustion: A mathematical framework integrating continuous dynamics with spatial heterogeneity

Abstract

Continuous antigen exposure drives T cells into a progressive state of dysfunction known as exhaustion, enabling tumors to evade immune surveillance and promoting disease progression. Despite its importance, predictive modeling of T cell exhaustion remains a major challenge due to the complexity of its regulatory dynamics. To address this challenge, we developed a mathematical framework that characterizes the dynamic regulation of T cell exhaustion and its impact on tumor-immune interactions. Here, we integrate multi-source data, population dynamics modeling, and agent-based modeling to track the progressive stages of CD8+ T cell exhaustion. Our model demonstrates that immune checkpoint blockade significantly delays exhaustion and promotes the expansion of tumor-reactive T cells compared to untreated conditions. From a pseudo-potential energy perspective, we show that the core mechanism of immunotherapy lies in expanding the tumor-reactive T cell pool, which consequently reduces the overall state of exhaustion within the system. We find that T cell activation and exhaustion signals jointly govern tumor-immune dynamics. Enhancing activation alone without restricting exhaustion can inadvertently accelerate the loss of T cell function. In contrast, combining enhanced activation (via anti-CTLA-4) with suppressed exhaustion (via anti-PD-1) is essential for achieving a sustained antitumor response. Furthermore, spatial simulations confirm that a high-activation and low-exhaustion state effectively restricts tumor spread, maintaining substantially lower tumor densities compared to low-activation, high-exhaustion scenarios. Our framework provides quantitative insights into T cell exhaustion and a theoretical foundation for optimizing combination immunotherapies.