It is established that LLM outputs should be treated as draws from a distribution rather than as fixed measurements, as well as guidance for data editors and authors.
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to generate data for research. Typical use cases are classifications, annotations, information extraction, and generation of numerical scores. Unlike conventional measurements, LLM outputs can vary across repeated requests even when the prompt and apparent model settings remain unchanged. This variation arises from deliberate sampling, silent model updates, numerical rounding, or expert routing. Setting a dedicated temperature parameter to zero removes deliberate sampling when that option is available, but it does not eliminate the other sources of randomness. Exact reproduction is therefore generally not possible when using proprietary application programming interfaces. Local execution of open-weight models offers greater control, but reproducibility still depends on the complete hardware and software stack. We illustrate these issues through sentiment classifications of corporate filings and examine their consequences for downstream regression results. We then propose a reporting standard for articles and replication packages, as well as guidance for data editors and authors. Together, these findings and recommendations establish that LLM outputs should be treated as draws from a distribution rather than as fixed measurements.
It is suggested that current LLMs often rely on heuristic arbitration strategies when integrating heterogeneous evidence, highlighting a failure mode for tool-augmented decision systems.
Mattia Carletti, Edward Phillips, Fredrik K. Gustafsson et al.· 0 citations
A crossed random-effects (generalizability-theory) decomposition is specified that partitions the total variance of a response-level brand outcome into these four sources, and embeds the components in a decision-study allocation that returns how many repeats, paraphrases, models, and languages to buy for a target relia...
The results show that the LLM's capability dissolves with dimension in a way no noise-corrupted classical learner mimics - which explains why LLMs, so capable elsewhere, keep losing to fifty-year-old baselines on tables, while leaving the mechanism of the prediction as an open question.
It is concluded that current LLMs cannot replace the statistician, though certain architectures approach useful performance on pattern‐recognition subtasks and architectural differences among models are connected to architectural differences among models.
Wolfgang Jank, Bernhard Klingenberg, Sonal Prabhune et al.· International Statistical Re...· 1 citation
Paired equivalence testing at a declared margin is supply: paired equivalence testing at a declared margin, with certification tables giving the items an evaluation needs, computed from disagreement observed under compression, not from independent-binomial variance.
For applications that require per-persona outputs, the same model that cannot sample from a distribution can describe it accurately in a single call, and is proposed Prompt-Perturbed Argyle (PPA), which reduces the same error by 21% at no added cost.
Chaemi Jang, Dong-Man Lee, Ji Hee Kim· arXiv.org· 0 citations
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