It is suggested that current LLMs often rely on heuristic arbitration strategies when integrating heterogeneous evidence, highlighting a failure mode for tool-augmented decision systems.
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in settings where textual summaries, numerical observations, and external tool outputs may provide conflicting evidence. We study how LLMs arbitrate between such sources when they support opposing decisions. To do so, we introduce a controlled synthetic benchmark in which latent risk trajectories generate both numerical time series and natural language summaries, allowing us to construct conflicts where exactly one evidence source is aligned with the ground-truth label. This design lets us independently manipulate modality, temporal recency, source reliability, and evidence provenance. Across open-weight instruction-tuned models, we find that arbitration behaviour is systematic rather than random: models exhibit distinct text-versus-number preferences, follow temporal recency more consistently than explicit reliability cues, and can over-rely on external forecasts even when they conflict with direct contextual evidence. These results suggest that current LLMs often rely on heuristic arbitration strategies when integrating heterogeneous evidence, highlighting a failure mode for tool-augmented decision systems.
Despite increasing reliance on LLMs that reason with external evidence supplied by tools, retrieval-augmented generation, other agents, and users, how LLMs integrate such evidence into decisions they have already begun to form remains largely unclear. We present a distributional theory in which evidence shifts the receiver's distribution of initial answers, driven by a receiver prior weight and a candidate evidence tilt, leading to three predictions. First, candidates more probable to the receiver are more persuasive. Second, receivers more readily integrate characteristic errors of their own than foreign errors from different sources. Third, identical evidence can improve weaker models and harm stronger ones. We confirm these over ten million trials, twelve LLMs from four families, and eight domains, four of them scientific discovery tasks in the physical and life sciences: quantum mechanics, physics, genetics, and molecular biology. The law also yields a receiver-relative reliability frontier: receiver-congruent errors depress performance more steeply than random errors of the same rate. LLMs also integrate candidates even after internally verifying their invalidity (93-100% with propositional constraints; up to 99.4% on held-out physical and life-sciences reasoning), demonstrating evidence integration is a receiver-specific control policy over existing distributions, determined by receiver properties rather than scalar trust in the evidence source. Causal interventions show candidate integration is implemented late in the network, as a structured sequence of steps admitting external candidate answers, promoting them, and transporting them into the answer state. Representations of verification are decodable but have little causal impact on answers. A J-lens decomposition shows the state underlying verbalized verification is fully dissociable from that underlying candidate integration.
It is established that LLM outputs should be treated as draws from a distribution rather than as fixed measurements, as well as guidance for data editors and authors.
Guillaume Coqueret, J. Llull, Florian Oswald et al.· 2 citations
This work introduces OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth.
Seonglae Cho, A. Koshiyama· arXiv.org· 0 citations
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a coherent world model. In this paper, we evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a procedure that builds on a theorem due to de Finetti. We elicit forecasts from language models across events generated from stock returns data. We then use linear programs to compute the largest Dutch-book profit - the profit an arbitrageur could guarantee by betting against model-generated probabilities - which we use as a measure of incoherence. Our procedure does not require outcome labels, so we can evaluate coherence even in settings where outcomes are not observed or have not yet resolved. We find substantial evidence of incoherence in language model forecasts. Such incoherence increases when there are richer logical relationships between events, and irrelevant contextual details can increase incoherence by an order of magnitude. We conclude by discussing how alternative training strategies may improve probabilistic coherence.
Professional communication is increasingly mediated by LLMs - but do these models serve all users equally? We show that when prompts contain linguistic features more commonly used by women (hedges, tag questions, collective reference), they systematically elicit shorter, less sophisticated, and less formal responses across three document types and four models. These effects persist after controlling for prompt complexity and feature carry-over. Explicit gender cues like sign-off names are encoded in the same representational space as linguistic dialect - suggesting shared underlying mechanisms - yet linguistic register is far more influential, producing large, consistent effects where names produce none. Our results further reveal that post-hoc mitigation is challenging: because these patterns are culturally embedded and outside conscious control, users cannot easily avoid them through strategic self-presentation, and mechanistic analysis reveals that linguistic features are encoded in early transformer layers and entangled with other features. Our work calls for upstream consideration of the influences of linguistic variation to mitigate disparate impacts of LLM-mediated workplace communication.
Regression analyses show that distributional properties of confidence scores explain much of the observed alignment pattern, with model metadata playing a smaller role after controls, and support a lossy-channel view of linguistic confidence.
Hefan Zhang, Bing-Quan Zhang, Ming Cheng et al.· 1 citation
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