Neural Parameter Estimation of RC Thermal Building Models for Model Predictive Control

Abstract

Gray-box RC models are widely used to enable energy-efficient model predictive control (MPC) in buildings. However, estimating RC parameters remains difficult, as conventional optimization-based algorithms are prone to local minima, rely heavily on good initial guesses, and incur high computational cost. To address these issues, we propose the Estimator from Scratch, a novel neural parameter estimation approach that embeds the physical equations into a neural network's training process to estimate RC parameters. To further improve estimation accuracy and eliminate dependence on an initial guess, we extend this approach by pretraining the neural network on data from multiple source buildings, the Pretrained Estimator. We benchmark both methods against a genetic-algorithm-based RC estimator and a fully black-box neural network. All methods are evaluated across eight simulated and three real-world buildings for two RC configurations, for both prediction accuracy and closed-loop MPC performance, the latter only for the simulated buildings. The Pretrained Estimator achieves the best prediction performance among all RC-based methods, particularly with little training data, and yields the lowest and least variable MPC costs across buildings and benchmarks. These results position the Pretrained Estimator as a robust, computationally efficient, and initial-guess-free alternative for RC parameter estimation, with potential to extend to other control-oriented dynamical systems.