A Probabilistic Decision-Making Framework for Coastal Railroads
Abstract
Railway corridors are often located in coastal areas, making them vulnerable to storm-induced failures. This study develops a framework to analyze performance of coastal rail infrastructure against storm-induced surge and waves with the consideration of climate change and sea-level rise. The procedure shifts from traditional scenario-based analysis to a fully probabilistic storm hazard model by using synthetic storm data sets. This probabilistic hazard model is integrated with fragility models for key failure modes, including ballast and embankment scour for inland tracks and deck uplift for ballast-deck concrete bridges. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation is then adopted to estimate life expectancies for rail track components considering long-term effects from climate change and sea-level rise. A case study is performed for rail tracks owned by CSX Transportation and Canadian National Railway spanning from Alabama to Louisiana. The results indicate potential vulnerabilities for approximately 18% of ballast-deck bridges and 34% of inland tracks. Furthermore, the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies, such as elevation and relocation of tracks and bridges, is investigated. This study provides a quantitative framework to estimate coastal railroad vulnerabilities, prioritize mitigation solutions, and devise retrofit actions.