Integrating Monte Carlo Weather Risk Simulation and Value Engineering for Marine Bridge Foundation Planning: Abu Qir Sea Bridge Case Study
Abstract
Marine bridge foundations in shallow coastal waters are highly sensitive to weather‑induced stoppages, yet many projects are still planned using deterministic schedules with fixed allowances for seasonal storms (seasonal meteorological phenomena). This paper presents an integrated framework applied to the Abu Qir Sea Bridge in Alexandria, Egypt, where a three-year deterministic schedule with seasonal storm buffers proved insufficient to reliably account for weather‑induced stoppages at the critical axis 24 foundations, indicating a high risk of significant delay if executed as originally planned. Daily site records covering more than one year were used to quantify weather-related stoppages and to develop a 1,000-iteration Monte Carlo schedule risk model that converts observed downtime into realistic calendar‑based durations and probabilistic completion dates. These risk‑adjusted durations feed a value engineering study that evaluates three execution alternatives (Scenarios S2, S3 and S4) alongside the baseline marine method (Scenario S1). The results show that temporary reclamation and dry construction (Scenario S4) provide the shortest risk‑adjusted duration for axis 24 foundations, a removable caisson and sheet‑pile cofferdam solution (Scenario S3) minimizes total foundation cost for Pier P24, and marine piling with precast working slabs (Scenario S2) is preferred for smaller pier foundations. The proposed framework improves the planning of marine bridge foundations by defining more realistic and reliable schedules and by supporting the selection of suitable execution methods and better‑informed decisions under uncertain weather conditions.