Operational Planning for Railway Services Based on Passenger Demand Forecasting during The Eid Transportation Period

Abstract

The Eid al-Fitr Transportation Period represents the peak season with the highest passenger demand for intercity railway services in Indonesia. According to the Ministry of Transportation's mobility survey, the number of travelers was projected to decline from 193.6 million in 2024 to 146.48 million in 2025. This trend also affected the Taksaka Train operating on the Gambir–Yogyakarta round-trip route, which experienced fluctuations in passenger volume over the past three years following the discontinuation of its afternoon service in 2025. Previous studies on railway operation planning have generally not integrated seasonal passenger demand forecasting with specific scheduling decisions during the Eid al-Fitr transportation period. Therefore, this study aims to develop an operational plan recommendation for the Taksaka Train based on passenger demand forecasting to support operational decision-making prior to the 2026 Eid al-Fitr Transportation Period. The study employs simple linear regression analysis using passenger departure and arrival data from Gambir Station for the 2023–2025 period. The forecasting results indicate an upward trend in passenger demand for 2026, reaching an estimated 49,541 passengers, representing an increase of approximately 6,773 passengers (15.8%) compared to 42,768 passengers in 2025. These findings suggest the existence of unmet passenger demand, particularly for afternoon departures. Accordingly, this study recommends reconsidering the reactivation of the Taksaka afternoon service in the 2026 operational planning.