Influence of Risk on Procurement in Public Institutions in Africa

Abstract

Purpose: This study examined the influence of risk on procurement in public institutions in Africa through a systematic meta-analysis of over 70 peer-reviewed and grey literature sources published between 2000 and 2025. Methodology: The research synthesized both quantitative and qualitative evidence to identify dominant procurement risks, assess their effect sizes, and evaluate heterogeneity across countries. Findings: The analysis revealed that corruption risks exert the strongest influence on procurement outcomes, with a pooled effect size of r = 0.62. Corruption manifested in bid rigging, inflated pricing, favoritism, and political patronage, eroding trust and inflating costs. Contract management risks (r = 0.55) and governance risks (r = 0.52) also emerged as significant, reflecting challenges in contract enforcement, monitoring, accountability, and political interference. Operational risks (r = 0.48), such as delays and supply chain inefficiencies, and technological risks (r = 0.41), linked to e-procurement adoption, were found to be moderately influential but increasingly relevant. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that procurement risks vary contextually: South Africa’s risks were tied to elite capture within strong legal systems, Ghana and Tanzania struggled with weak enforcement, and Nigeria faced diffuse governance-related risks. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: This study integrates agency, principal–agent, institutional, governance, and risk management theories into one analytical lens, empirically quantifying and ranking procurement risks by effect size while theorizing their interdependence as a systemic, self-reinforcing phenomenon adapted to African contexts. For policy, it offers an evidence-based hierarchy for sequencing reform and supports context-sensitive, integrated interventions over one-size-fits-all fixes. For practice, it highlights layered preventive, detective, and corrective controls, stronger contract oversight, capacity-building, and carefully managed e-procurement adoption. Collectively, it reframes procurement risk reduction as a developmental imperative central to transparency, accountability, and sustainable development across the continent.