Beyond Circularity Claims: Recognising Weak Signals of Deeper Transformation in the Plastics Sector

Abstract

Circular economy (CE) has become the organising promise of sustainable plastics, yet its reconciliation of continued material output with reduced environmental harm remains more often asserted than demonstrated. Building on prior critical discourse analysis of corporate circularity narratives, this Perspective asks what observable evidence would count as a credible weak signal of deeper directional change. We identify three structural couplings that keep circularity shallow: value–volume coupling, innovation–capital lock-in and narrative–power asymmetry. Rather than ranking firms, we propose a provisional discrimination test anchored in five dimensions of deep sustainability. Weak signals are tentative deviations from shallow circularity, not evidence that transformation has already occurred. An intentionally indeterminate case illustrates how the heuristic converts rhetorical disputes into empirical questions. The resulting research agenda translates the couplings into indicators and methods, directing attention to absolute tonnes, asset lifetimes, physical material flows and value-chain effects, and to where sufficiency and justice can be institutionalised in procurement, design, regulation and business models.