Gold Price Projections Under Macro-Financial Regime Uncertainty: A Structural Scenario Model for 2026-2030

Abstract

Gold entered the second half of 2026 in an unusually unstable regime. The metal reached an LBMA benchmark high above US 5,500/oz in January, fell below US 4,000/oz in June, and rebounded to US 4,336.02/oz on 7 August after a weak U.S. employment report altered the expected interest-rate path. This paper develops an original Regime-Weighted Structural Gold Projection Model (RWSGPM) for 2026-2030. The model rejects single-factor narratives and separates five channels: opportunity cost, inflation persistence, geopolitical risk, official-sector demand, and momentum/credibility effects. It also derives a sign-reversal condition under which a geopolitical shock can lower, rather than raise, gold when the shock simultaneously increases real yields and the U.S. dollar. Public macroeconomic releases, central-bank reserve evidence, market data, and published gold-driver sensitivities available through 8 August 2026 are used to calibrate three transparent regimes. With decision weights of 0.55 for the baseline regime, 0.25 for an upside stress regime, and 0.20 for a downside normalization regime, the model produces regime-weighted central projections of approximately US 4,493 at end-2026, US 4,783 at end-2027, US 5,168 at end-2028, and US 6,055 at end-2030. The corresponding scenario envelopes widen materially with horizon, reaching US 4,200-US 8,100 by end-2030. Robustness analysis shows that the 2030 central path ranges from about US 5,710 to US 6,480 under plausible alternative regime weights. The results support a conditional, distribution-aware interpretation of gold: structural reserve diversification provides support, but high real yields and dollar strength can dominate inflation and geopolitical narratives over shorter horizons. The framework is designed for transparent recalibration rather than deterministic price prediction.