INTEGRATED GIS AND DIGITAL TWIN–BASED FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO-BASED SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF URBAN BUILDINGS: CONCEPTUAL ARCHITECTURE AND CASE STUDY OF TASHKENT

Abstract

Urban areas located in seismically active regions are exposed to complex multi-factor risks arising from the interaction between seismic hazards and structural characteristics of the built environment. This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for scenario-based seismic vulnerability assessment of urban buildings that combines structural engineering analysis, multivariate regression modeling, geospatial information systems, and digital twin concepts, formulated here as a conceptual architecture that links structural databases, probabilistic simulations, and GIS visualization in an updateable decision-support loop. The methodology incorporates a structured building inventory including geometric, material, structural, and condition-related parameters to calculate a quantitative vulnerability index for each building under defined seismic loading scenarios. The proposed model was applied to a representative sample of buildings in Tashkent, where vulnerability levels were classified using a five-tier risk scale. Results demonstrate that the calculated vulnerability index effectively captures the combined influence of structural attributes and allows identification of buildings with elevated seismic susceptibility. Spatial visualization within a GIS environment revealed pronounced heterogeneity of risk distribution, highlighting localized clusters of structurally vulnerable buildings. The findings confirm that integrating engineering-based evaluation with data-driven modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy compared to traditional deterministic assessment approaches. The developed framework represents a scalable and transferable decision-support tool suitable for urban resilience planning, seismic risk mitigation, and prioritization of structural strengthening measures in earthquake-prone regions.