Data and code for "Historical introduction pools pre-structure future plant invasion debt under climate change"

Abstract

This repository provides the compiled analysis inputs, R code, figure source data and GIS rasters supporting the manuscript “Historical introduction pools pre-structure future plant invasion debt under climate change”. Version 2.0 contains the final USA-intersection climatic-analogue reconstruction and its corresponding model predictions and spatial summaries. The historical introduction pool contains 18,562 species. The stage-transition models use 5,791 complete-case species, of which 4,088 species without a recorded invasion form the future candidate invasion-debt subset. Future predictions cover 12 combinations of two climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), three periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100), and two global climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The archive contains: • Figure_data: XLSX source workbooks for main Figures 1–4, Supplementary Figures S1–S4 and Supplementary Tables S1–S15, together with the compiled species-level analysis dataset and current and future candidate-species predictions. • Code: R scripts, computational inputs and provenance documentation for the stage-transition models, climatic-analogue searches, future predictions, phylogenetic null analysis, temporal analyses, sensitivity analyses and publication source tables. • GIS_rasters: GeoTIFFs for the main and supplementary spatial figures. Main Figure 4 rasters contain sums within globally aligned 0.5° display cells; supplementary spatial rasters retain the native 10-arc-minute resolution. • Validation: execution records and numerical checks. • README files: instructions for reproducing the analyses, plotting the source data and interpreting the spatial fields. Current and future closest US climatic analogue cells are identified separately for each candidate species. POT is the sum of future predicted invasion probabilities assigned to future analogue cells. CHG is future grid-level transition potential minus current grid-level transition potential, with unassigned cells completed with zero. CHG therefore incorporates both changes in predicted probability and relocation of climatic analogues. POSDP is the sum of positive species-level changes assigned to future analogue cells; Supplementary Figure S3 reports its range across the two climate models. The analytical workflow was tested with R 4.3.3. Reproduction starts from the compiled historical master dataset, supplied phylogenetic inputs, prepared species climatic centroids and extracted WorldClim grid values. The package does not independently repeat every upstream archive-curation decision, manual stage-status assignment, GBIF download or occurrence-cleaning step. These boundaries and the optional XLSX and GeoTIFF export procedures are documented in the README. The historical count of 15,950 candidate invasion-debt species is retained for historical summaries; it is not the population used for future predictions. This release supersedes the earlier spatial outputs based on a rectangular climate-search domain. Future results should be interpreted as conditional model projections rather than evidence of a statistically established climate-driven increase in invasion. The repository record is distributed under CC BY 4.0. The software license included in Code/LICENSE and the original terms of third-party inputs remain applicable.