Strategic Positioning in the Global EV Transition: A Configurational Analysis of Market-Infrastructure Alignment

Abstract

The global transition to electric mobility has accelerated considerably, yet countries continue to exhibit substantial differences in the pace, scale, and structural configuration of electrification. While prior research has largely focused on the determinants of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, comparatively limited attention has been devoted to identifying distinct national transition patterns that reflect the joint development of EV markets and supporting infrastructure. To address this gap, this study develops strategic typologies of national EV transitions from a configurational perspective. Using the historical component of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Global EV Data 2024 dataset, this analysis examines 31 countries with respect to three indicators: EV sales share, EV stock share, and public charging infrastructure. A reproducible Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) analysis identifies three empirical clusters: Early Transition Markets, Advanced Transition Economies, and Frontier Transition Economies, with the latter comprising Norway and Iceland. Robustness analyses using alternative clustering techniques support the broader empirical distinction among early, advanced, and frontier transition configurations. Within the frontier cluster, Norway and Iceland are further classified as two theoretically distinct subprofiles because they display markedly different combinations of market penetration and infrastructure scale, with Norway an Extreme Frontrunner and Iceland a High-Penetration Niche Frontrunner. The findings demonstrate that national EV transitions do not follow a single, linear electrification pathway but rather emerge from different configurations of market formation and infrastructure readiness. By distinguishing empirically identified clusters from theoretically interpreted subprofiles, the study avoids conflating statistical classification with conceptual interpretation. The study contributes to EV-transition research, sustainability-transition research, configurational research, and strategic-management research by conceptualizing national EV-transition capability as the capacity to align market development with infrastructure readiness. The resulting typology also provides a comparative framework for understanding differentiated national electrification pathways and their strategic and policy implications.