Techno-Economic Assessment of Modular Offshore Floating Photovoltaic Systems Using Deterministic and Probabilistic LCOE Analysis

Abstract

Offshore floating photovoltaics (OFPVs) can expand solar generation without terrestrial land-use conflicts, but marine structures, installations, and operations remain cost-intensive. This study develops a reproducible deterministic and probabilistic levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) framework for the modular 0.5 MW PV-BOS platform. The methodological contribution is the consistent integration of component-level CAPEX and OPEX ranges, route-specific logistics evidence, lifetime degradation, financing uncertainty, and scenario-dependent cost modes within one model. The deterministic calculations were reproduced using initial CAPEX at year 0 and annual energy degradation expressed as (1 − d)(t−1). For a 30-year long-term scenario, the optimized deterministic LCOE is 85.56 USD/MWh. A 100,000-trial Monte Carlo analysis gives a mean of 119.42 USD/MWh and P10/P50/P90 values of 91.64/117.11/150.23 USD/MWh under the explicitly defined baseline distributions. The route-specific Vigo–Valencia comparison shows a 58.7% reduction for the transport-and-port-assembly subtotal, but this ratio is not interpreted as a universal full T&I saving. The capacity factor is the dominant LCOE driver, followed by CAPEX. The results support modular logistics as a potentially important cost-reduction mechanism while showing that bankability depends on site-specific energy-yield, metocean design, availability, financing, and O&M validation.