Behavioral decision-making and marketing institution preferences in coconut agroindustry development: evidence from SWOT-AHP and value-added analysis in Indonesia

Abstract

Coconut agroindustry supports rural livelihoods and economic resilience in Indonesia, yet many producers remain dependent on inefficient marketing systems characterized by intermediary dominance, weak bargaining power, and limited value-added diversification. This study examines how behavioral decision-making influences marketing institution preferences and strategic agroindustry development in Buton Regency, Indonesia. A field-based mixed-method study involved 489 copra processors, 182 coconut shell charcoal processors, marketing actors, and 10 institutional experts. Economic performance was evaluated through Hayami value-added analysis, farmer’s share, marketing margins, and a price-spread efficiency index. The archived expert-consensus ordering of five marketing-institution criteria was converted into normalized rank-order centroid weights. The retained four-group priority vector was analyzed through a transparent group-level SWOT-AHP synthesis and one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. Coconut shell charcoal processing generated an average value added of IDR 1,002.52/kg and a value-added ratio of 54.87%. The shorter marketing channel increased farmer's share from 75.00% to 85.71% and reduced the price-spread index from 25.00% to 14.29%. Selling price (0.4567), demand stability (0.2567), and accessibility (0.1567) were the leading preference criteria. SWOT weights were 0.4658 for strengths, 0.2771 for opportunities, 0.1611 for weaknesses, and 0.0960 for threats. The normalized strategy scores ranked SO first (0.3715), followed by ST (0.2809), WO (0.2191), and WT (0.1286); no rank reversals occurred under ±10% and ±20% weight perturbations. Coconut-agroindustry decisions reflect both economic incentives and institutional constraints. Higher-value processing and shorter marketing channels improve economic outcomes, but liquidity certainty, transaction security, accessibility, and institutional familiarity continue to shape producer preferences. The behavioral interpretation is therefore preference-based and conceptual rather than a psychometric validation of bounded rationality or institutional trust.