Explainable Machine Learning in Mineral Prospectivity Mapping: A Critical Review of Methods, Geological Knowledge Embedding, Validation, and Future Directions

Abstract

Mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) increasingly integrates geological, geochemical, geophysical, remote-sensing, and structural evidence through machine-learning workflows. Predictive accuracy alone, however, does not establish that a prospectivity map is geologically credible or useful for exploration decisions. This critical narrative review examines explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for MPM through the connections among model behavior, mineral-system knowledge, sampling, spatial validation, uncertainty, and field evidence. We distinguish methods demonstrated in representative MPM studies from general explanation tools and proposed applications. Study-level comparisons show that SHAP and permutation-based attribution can support evidence-layer auditing and target interpretation, while their meaning depends on correlated predictors, label construction, and evaluation design. Spatially separated evaluation tests a different generalization problem from random splitting; neither replaces newly acquired field evidence. Geological plausibility, model faithfulness, explanation stability, and decision utility therefore require separate assessment. We synthesize practical pathways for geological knowledge embedding and three-dimensional modeling, identify limits in current graph explanations and uncertainty reporting, and propose a minimum reporting checklist. Future priorities include geospatial foundation models, source-traceable language tools, three-dimensional prospectivity and four-dimensional extensions incorporating geological time, knowledge-guided hypothesis generation, integrated exploration systems, and field-based evaluation of explanations.