Regional security complexes and African foreign policies: ECOWAS and the Sahel security order, 2012–2025

Abstract

African regional organisations exhibit uneven effectiveness in responding to regional security challenges, acting decisively in some crises while failing in others. This article examines why the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) successfully imposed sanctions on unconstitutional regimes yet struggled to restore security order in the Sahel. It investigates the structural and political factors underlying this variation through the lens of Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT). The study adopts a qualitative, exploratory research design based on comparative case analysis of three critical episodes: the Mali crisis (2012–2013), counterterrorism cooperation in the Lake Chad Basin, and the ECOWAS–Alliance of Sahel States (AES) rupture (2023–2025). Using RSCT as the primary analytical framework, the study assesses patterns of regional security governance, institutional capacity, and external involvement to explain variations in ECOWAS’s effectiveness. The analysis identifies recurring patterns of thin regional power, shifting amity–enmity relations, and persistent external embedment that constrain ECOWAS’s ability to provide regional security. While ECOWAS has demonstrated effectiveness in enforcing political norms through sanctions, it has remained dependent on external actors for military and security capabilities. To explain this paradox, the article introduces the concept of externalised interdependence, describing a condition in which security threats emerge locally and diffuse regionally, while the resources required to address them remain structurally reliant on external partners. The findings suggest that West Africa is more accurately understood as a hybrid regional security complex characterised by limited autonomous capacity, contested security narratives, and constitutive external involvement. Although exploratory rather than confirmatory, the study highlights conceptual limitations in RSCT concerning regional autonomy and external penetration. By refining the theory through the concept of externalised interdependence, the article offers a more nuanced explanation for ECOWAS’s selective effectiveness and contributes to broader debates on regional security governance in Africa.