Physics-informed remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearings under variable speed using vibration envelope features and adaptive maintenance thresholds

Abstract

The reliable estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling bearings plays a critical role in maintaining the reliability of modern industrial equipment and minimizing machine downtime. However, the conventional vibration-based prognostic methods tend to experience challenges in predicting the remaining useful life of rolling bearings in variable-speed operating environments due to issues with nonstationary signals and the lack of incorporation of physical degradation processes. This paper proposes a physics-informed approach for estimating the remaining useful life of rolling bearings using vibration envelope characteristics and accelerated life testing. The approach starts with the use of order tracking combined with envelope analysis to extract vibration envelope characteristics under variable speed conditions. A health index is constructed to represent the degradation process. The nonlinear degradation process is modelled using a physics-informed exponential degradation model. An ensemble prediction model is proposed for predicting RUL. The results demonstrate that the developed model was significantly more accurate in its predictions, with a maximum of 49% improvement in the RMSE compared to traditional models and consistent results under varied operational conditions. The use of physics-based modelling and envelope analysis increased the clarity and robustness of the model, and the acceleration of the life testing process contributed to better generalizability of the model. Moreover, the introduction of adaptive threshold values improved maintenance time prediction by over 50%, and uncertainty assessment confirmed the validity of the model.