Fresh at Decision, Stale at Action: Routing New Information to LLM Decisions Already Made

Abstract

Freshness shapes an LLM decision at the moment it is made; the action it commits to is latent, carried out later, in a changing world. We therefore introduce a timestamp theory of decision validity and a decision ledger that realises it. Six timestamps define a decision; a freshness ceiling bounds what up-to-date evidence guarantees at action time, placing the remaining risk in information published afterwards. Accuracy then factorises into two capabilities: routing, which delivers that information to affected decisions before their revision deadlines, and temporal judgment, which reads it for the time of action. The ledger is persistent state holding each decision's times, evidence and background knowledge, indexed by watch conditions written at decision time. Controlled decision streams with exact labels confirm four predictions across five LLMs, from 8B to frontier scale: freshness alone yields exactly the accuracy the ceiling predicts; models act on decisive news once it arrives, so accuracy follows routing; the ledger's index sets what routing reaches, and watch conditions reach indirect dependencies at low exposure; and the remaining errors concern when a change takes effect. Freshness makes a decision right when it is made; routing and temporal judgment keep it right when it is carried out.