How Reliable Are Large Language Models for Soil Organic Carbon Assessment? An Australian Benchmark

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an indicator of agricultural soil condition and carbon storage, but numerical outputs from large language models (LLMs) require validation before use in monitoring or management. We evaluated seven general-purpose LLM configurations on three direct-response tasks: estimating 0--10 cm SOC concentrations for 308 Australian paddocks under two information conditions, calculating SOC stock in 120 matched scenarios, and comparing 300 paddock pairs. References were measured SOC records or deterministic calculations; response validity, repeated-call dispersion and estimated API cost were assessed separately. Additional measured soil attributes reduced concentration mean absolute error by 13--62\% across configurations, although high-SOC underprediction and paddock-specific errors persisted. Six configurations were highly accurate in stock calculations using equation-native units without coarse fragments, but accuracy declined with physically equivalent alternative units. Pairwise accuracy was 90.5--94.6\% overall and 59.1--70.9\% for 52 closely separated pairs; some configurations were sensitive to presentation order. Nearly all outputs were parseable, without necessarily being correct. The benchmark identifies three distinct requirements for AI-mediated SOC assessment: agreement with measured concentrations, unit-consistent stock calculations and reliable discrimination between sites. These findings support task-specific validation and auditable calculations, rather than unverified use of LLM outputs as ecological evidence.