Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Smallholder Farmers' Household Income and Agricultural Investment Decisions in Eastern Province, Zambia

Abstract

Climate variability poses significant challenges to agricultural production and rural livelihoods, particularly among smallholder farmers who depend largely on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined the impact of climate variability on agricultural investment decisions and household income among smallholder farmers in Eastern Province, Zambia. The study adopted a quantitative cross-sectional research design guided by the positivist research paradigm. Primary data were collected from 345 smallholder farming households selected from seven districts using structured questionnaires. Descriptive statistics and simple linear regression analysis were employed to analyse the data. The findings revealed widespread perceptions of increasing climate variability, with 99.1% of respondents reporting changes in rainfall patterns over the past decade. Conservation farming, improved seed varieties, and drought-resistant crops were identified as the principal adaptation strategies adopted by farmers. However, regression analysis showed that climate variability was not a statistically significant predictor of agricultural investment decisions (β = -0.015, p = 0.421) and explained only a negligible proportion of the variation in investment decisions (R² = 0.002). Similarly, the relationship between climate variability and household income was found to be very weak (R² = 0.001, p = 0.574), indicating that household income is influenced by a wider range of socioeconomic and institutional factors beyond climate variability alone. The study concludes that although climate variability remains a major concern for smallholder farmers, it does not independently determine agricultural investment decisions or household income in Eastern Province. The study recommends strengthening access to climate information, extension services, affordable agricultural credit, irrigation development, and improved seed varieties to enhance the resilience and productivity of smallholder farming households.