EpiGuard: An Autonomous Infectious-Disease Early Warning Agent Platform

Abstract

Infectious disease outbreaks often spread rapidly before signs of widespread transmission become apparent, leaving a big challenge for rapid response and effective intervention. However, current infectious-disease early-warning systems face three major challenges: fragmented epidemiological evidence across diverse surveillance sources, highly uneven data availability across diseases and geographic regions, and delayed warning procedure caused by manual data collection, analysis, and reporting. To address these challenges, we present EpiGuard, an autonomous, continually self-improving agentic platform for timely and reliable early warning of more than 50 infectious diseases across different regions. EpiGuard proactively monitors and captures newly released official surveillance records, using the latest available evidence for risk assessments. It dynamically adjusts its analytical strategy across three evidence availability regimes, enabling reliable risk assessment under diverse data conditions, ranging from the absence of historical observations to sparse and abundant evidence. Moreover, EpiGuard learns from the successful execution process by preserving effective data-acquisition and analytical procedures as reusable standard operating procedures, enabling it to progressively generalize to previously unseen diseases and regions. We use officially released infectious-disease surveillance data from the China CDC and the United States CDC to evaluate EpiGuard's effectiveness. Experimental results demonstrate that EpiGuard outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting systems, improving forecasting performance by 9.68% and 14.04% on the China CDC and U.S. CDC datasets, respectively.