Runtime Monitoring of Supermartingale Certificates
Mirco GiacobbeThomas A. HenzingerKonstantin KueffnerEmily Yu\DJ{}or\dj{}e \v{Z}ikeli\'{c}
Oct 2026
Artificial Intelligence
Abstract
Supermartingale certificates formally guarantee temporal properties of discrete and continuous-time stochastic dynamical systems. However, these guarantees rely on a mathematical model of the world, leaving a sim-to-real gap that can invalidate them for the deployed system. We formulate the runtime monitoring problem for supermartingale certificates, in which a monitor observes a single system trajectory and raises an alarm when there is sufficient statistical evidence that the supermartingale certificate has been violated during execution. We present an algorithm to automatically construct a monitor using betting-based sequential tests that bound the probability of ever raising a false alarm at a user-specified level. Within this betting framework, we formulate strategies that allow the monitor to exploit spatial regularity to improve detection power while preserving this statistical guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on supermartingale certificate benchmarks from the literature.
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