Innovation Systems, Renewable Energy Efficiency, Energy Transition, and Mitigation–Expansion Trap: Evidence on Structural Drivers of Climate Decoupling

Abstract

Climate change requires an integrated policy framework that can handle multifaceted interrelations between energy systems, financial systems, technological innovation, and demographic processes. This research explores implicit drivers of CO 2 intensity and ecological footprint in 13 developed and developing countries from 2001 to 2025 using an interpretable MNN–DeepSHAP framework. The results indicate that better and more consistent environmental impacts are generated through improved efficiency of renewable energy, especially through lower levelized costs and better production performance rather than simply increasing installed capacity. Green technological innovation and structural energy transition can help to lower emissions, particularly when green investment is supported by well‐developed financial markets. But economic expansion alone does not ensure ecological sustainability, whereas population growth creates persistent upward pressure on environmental demand. This reflects a mitigation–expansion trap in which scale effects offset technological progress. The study emphasizes the importance of integrated policy packages.