Sep 2026· journal of Health Research and Development· Vol 4, pp. 65-76· 0 citations· 17 references
TL;DR
Although the overall burden of TB in Iran has declined over the past three decades, the rising trend of drug-resistant forms highlights the continued need for strengthened early detection, surveillance of drug resistance, and targeted treatment strategies.
Abstract
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the most significant public health challenges, and monitoring its long-term trends is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of disease control programs. This study aimed to assess the 30-year trend of TB prevalence and disease burden in Iran from 1994 to 2023. Methods: This ecological descriptive study was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Indicators of TB prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Iran, the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and globally were extracted and analyzed as age-standardized rates per 100,000 population. Temporal trends were assessed using the Joinpoint regression model and the average annual percent change (AAPC), with a significance level set at 0.05. Results: The findings indicated a decreasing trend in both DALYs and TB prevalence, with AAPCs of −4.50 and −0.39, respectively (P <0.001). In subgroups, both DALYs and prevalence of drug-susceptible TB showed declining trends, whereas multidrug-resistant TB and extensively drug-resistant TB demonstrated increasing trends (P <0.001). Conclusion: Although the overall burden of TB in Iran has declined over the past three decades, the rising trend of drug-resistant forms highlights the continued need for strengthened early detection, surveillance of drug resistance, and targeted treatment strategies.
The trends and factors identified in this study can enhance public awareness, reduce risk factors, and support effective patient screening programs, and help health policymakers assess regional disease status and develop future strategies.
Amir Ghorbanzade, M. Javanian, Mohsen Karami et al.· Caspian Journal of Internal...· 0 citations
Saudi Arabia faces a major tuberculosis (TB) challenge, potentially amplified by a large expatriate population from endemic areas, yet long-term national analyses remain limited. A retrospective analysis of Ministry of Health surveillance data was conducted for 2012–2024. Temporal trends were evaluated using segmented regression, while spatial heterogeneity across 20 health regions was assessed using burden and incidence analyses; distributions by sex, nationality, age, and TB type were examined. Future TB incidence rates were projected to 2029 using ARIMA and exponential smoothing (ETS) models; given the small number of annual observations, these projections are exploratory. A total of 37,477 TB cases were reported. A 2013 change point was followed by a decline of about 70 cases per year to 2024. Incidence fell during the 2020 pandemic and is currently around 7–8 cases per 100,000 population, nationally. Burden was concentrated in Jeddah and Riyadh, while incidence analyses additionally identified Jazan’s elevated population-adjusted notification rate. Cases were more frequent among males (67.5–79.7%) and adults aged ≥ 15 years (~ 97% of notifications with age data); non-Saudi residents accounted for 42.0-57.5%, exceeding 50% in several years. Pulmonary TB comprised 73.6–79.0% of cases. Exploratory forecasts projected broadly stable incidence to 2029, with wide prediction intervals. Although TB burden has declined since 2013, national incidence has shown little further reduction after 2020. Exploratory forecasts suggest broadly stable incidence through 2029, although considerable uncertainty remains. Strengthened surveillance, targeted screening, and region-specific interventions are needed to advance WHO End TB targets.
I. Alruwaili, Shandana Riaz, Hasan Ejaz et al.· BMC Infectious Diseases· 0 citations
Chronic kidney disease mortality increased in Brazil, with ageing of deaths, persistent male excess mortality, an increasing share among Black and Brown individuals, and regional differences from 2010 to 2024.
Alana Coêlho Maciel, Thiago Emmanuel Araujo dos Santos, Renato Sarmento dos Reis Moreno et al.· Revista de Estudos Interdisc...· 0 citations
INTRODUCTION
Respiratory infections and tuberculosis are leading causes of global morbidity and mortality; yet comprehensive research on their associated risk factors remains limited, hindering the development of effective preventive strategies.
METHODOLOGY
The 2021 Global Burden of Disease data from 204 countries (1990-2021) was used to measure deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates (ASMR and ASDR) tied to 9 risk factors. The trends were analyzed by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, with annual and average annual percentage changes (APC, AAPC) used to track changes over time.
RESULTS
Globally, mortality rates (ASMR) for respiratory infections and tuberculosis linked to traditional risks-malnutrition, air pollution, and alcohol use-declined significantly; annual decreases of 4.46%, 3.18%, and 3.35%, respectively. Deaths attributed to metabolic risks like high BMI and blood sugar increased, despite falling ASMR. Geographic disparities were notable: Lesotho saw the sharpest rise in BMI-related mortality (3.92%), while Hungary had the steepest decline (-7.4%). Men faced a higher burden from behavioral risks, with tobacco-related mortality 3.6 times higher than in women. Children under 5 years were especially vulnerable to environmental risks, with unsafe water and sanitation contributing to a 4.55% annual decline in mortality rates.
CONCLUSIONS
This study highlights the need for targeted actions, such as tobacco control in high-middle SDI regions, air quality improvements in South Asia, and nutrition programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. It offers a precise public health framework to reduce respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and promote global health equity by analyzing sociodemographic and time trends.
Shareli Caikai, Jing Jiang, Yi Shi et al.· Journal of Infection in Deve...· 0 citations
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a severe infectious disease that has significant adverse effects on the human body. In recent years, TB infections have re-emerged, with numerous cases recorded in various regions worldwide. This poses a major public health challenge for healthcare agencies.
Objective: We aim to analyze positive cases recorded in the "TB Diseases Statement Register," understand the epidemiology of TB, and assess its evolution.
Methodology: This retrospective study was conducted in Guelma Province, northeast Algeria, from 2010 to 2013. Over the past decades, TB infection rates in Guelma have shown a bell-shaped fluctuation trend.
Results: The disease primarily affects adults aged 16 to 45 years. A significant difference was observed in infection rates based on geographical location, sex, age, and the bacterial site of infection (internal versus external pulmonary).
Conclusion: Despite the implementation of the TB-DOTS (Tuberculosis Directly Observed Treatment Short-course) program in Algeria to control the disease, new strategies should be adopted to further reduce TB cases.
Bangladesh Journal of Infectious Diseases, June 2026;13(1):8-13
M. Rouaiguia, Fatma Djamaa, Amina Boussaha et al.· Bangladesh Journal of Infect...· 0 citations
BACKGROUND
Tuberculosis remains a major global public health challenge, particularly in high-burden countries such as Brazil. The End TB Strategy and the COVID-19 pandemic represent key events associated with changes in tuberculosis incidence and mortality, although their temporal patterns and combined effects remain insufficiently explored.
METHODS
An ecological study using interrupted time series analysis was conducted with annual tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil from 2001 to 2024. Prais-Winsten regression with logarithmic transformation was applied to estimate level and trend changes, considering 2015 and 2020 as interruption points within the same analytical model. Model fit was assessed using the Durbin-Watson test and adjusted R2.
RESULTS
In the combined two-intervention model, TB incidence showed no significant immediate change following the End TB Strategy but increased by 3.8% per year (95% CI: 2.1; 5.6; p < 0.001) between 2015 and 2020. Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, incidence decreased immediately by 15.2% (95% CI: -20.6; -9.6; p < 0.001), followed by an annual increase of 3.1% (95% CI: 0.6; 5.6; p = 0.07). Mortality showed no significant immediate changes associated with either interruption but increased by 5.6% per year after 2020 (95% CI: 3.0; 8.2; p < 0.001).
CONCLUSION
Changes in TB incidence and mortality were temporally associated with the selected interruption points, including an increase in incidence between 2015 and 2020 and a marked decline following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, causal attribution is limited by the ecological design, absence of a control group and the small number of observations between intervention points and after 2020.
B. V. B. Cabral, G. Sousa, T. S. Garcês et al.· Tropical medicine & internat...· 0 citations
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