Different Models, Shared Failures: Auditing Frozen-Encoder Pools for Medical Segmentation

Abstract

Average segmentation accuracy and model count do not reveal whether models fail on the same cases. We present CoFailMed, an audit of correlated failures in pretrained-encoder pools for medical segmentation. Across five 2D tasks, we evaluate 11 public pretrained encoders (a controlled sample, not a census) using frozen features and separately trained $1\times 1$ readouts with four seeds per encoder. Shared-checkpoint pairs have the highest mean per-case Dice correlation. An expanded 17-encoder analysis shows that distinct checkpoints within the same encoder family remain more correlated than cross-family pairs. At the pooled 33rd-percentile Dice threshold, four-member pools drawn from distinct encoders have mean effective sizes of 1.56-2.92, estimated from failure correlations in pools with enough failures and passes per member. In the primary pool, richer readouts and fine-tuning narrow the Dice-correlation gap between pairs sharing a checkpoint (or the DINOv2-B/S release) and all other pairs. Yet dependence between different encoders can increase, and fine-tuning does not consistently increase effective pool size at 33rd-percentile thresholds recomputed for each training recipe. A smaller between-group gap can coexist with greater dependence. Pool evaluation should therefore report absolute dependence and threshold-specific effective size alongside accuracy and nominal pool size. The CoFailMed release provides aligned per-case traces, analysis scripts and study code to reproduce the central audit results.