Research on the Measurement, Temporal Evolution, and Sustainable Optimization Paths of Agricultural Resilience in China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas

Abstract

Against the background of global climate risks and Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger), China’s 13 major grain-producing regions account for nearly 78% of national grain output while exhibiting substantial disparities in sustainable agricultural development. Using provincial panel data from 2015 to 2024, this study constructs a five-dimensional agricultural resilience evaluation system encompassing production, ecological, economic, recovery, and innovation resilience. The entropy weight method, Theil index decomposition, obstacle-degree model, and GM(1,1) model are used to construct the composite index, decompose regional disparities, assess relative obstacle patterns, and extrapolate historical trends through 2030. The results show an overall upward but fluctuating trend in the composite index of resilience-related capacity, together with clear regional differentiation across the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions; between-region differences remain the principal source of overall disparity. The obstacle-degree results show changes in the relative positions of infrastructure-, innovation-, and labor-related indicators within the obstacle structure. The trend-based extrapolations indicate that regional differentiation in the composite index may persist through 2030. The observed patterns provide differentiated policy implications for major grain-producing regions and offer evidence relevant to long-term food security.