Which Deep Learner? A Systematic Evaluation of Advanced Deep Forecasting Models Accuracy and Efficiency for Network Traffic Prediction

Abstract

Network traffic prediction is an essential tool for automating modern network management. It is a difficult time series forecasting (TSF) problem that has been addressed by Deep Learning (DL) models due to their ability to capture complex patterns. Recent years have witnessed advances in deep forecasting models, from sophisticated transformer architectures to simple linear models, improving performance across diverse prediction tasks. However, given the diversity of these models, the variability of network traffic across environments and timescales, and the inherent challenges of network traffic prediction, it is essential to identify effective deployment choices and modeling directions. Henceforth, this study systematically identifies 12 deep forecasting models, comprising 8 advanced TSF models and 4 traditional deep learning architectures -- each with unique advantages for network traffic prediction -- against 3 statistical baselines, for a total of 15 forecasting methods and evaluate them on four real traffic datasets, across multiple time scales and horizons, assessing performance, robustness to anomalies, data gaps, external factors, data efficiency, and resource efficiency in terms of time, memory, and energy. Our results provide insights into model behaviour and guidelines for network management, highlighting performance regimes, efficiency thresholds, and promising architectures that balance accuracy, efficiency, and robustness to traffic challenges.