This work proposes Missing-Data Flow Matching, which treats the missing coordinates of training samples as latent variables and averages the flow matching loss over the values they could take, and places the method alongside strong classical and deep imputation baselines on real tabular data.
Abstract
Flow matching assumes fully observed training data, which many real-world applications rarely provide. We propose Missing-Data Flow Matching, which treats the missing coordinates of training samples as latent variables and averages the flow matching loss over the values they could take. We first prove the correction is exact rather than approximate. Under missing completely at random with true completions, the incomplete-data objective equals the complete-data objective, so missingness changes nothing about what flow matching learns and the entire difficulty relocates to the completion model. Our finite-sample analysis then answers design questions that the algorithm leaves open, and the answers are not the ones intuition suggests. Missingness transfers estimator variance rather than adding it, one completion per example already matches complete-data variance exactly, and under a fixed evaluation budget one completion is optimal. A learned completion model contributes a single irreducible bias, which we bound by its expected conditional Wasserstein distance to the true completion law. Experiments numerically validate the theoretical predictions, show that deterministic rather than frozen imputation is what collapses the generated distribution, and place our method alongside strong classical and deep imputation baselines on real tabular data.
Conditional Flow Matching trains generative models by regressing a network onto the velocity of a prescribed noise-to-data interpolation path. The interpolation schedule that shapes this path is known to affect convergence and sample quality, yet it is invariably fixed in advance, independent of both the data and the model. We show that the regression difficulty of Conditional Flow Matching varies systematically along the path, and we propose Difficulty-Calibrated Flow Matching, which derives the schedule from the model itself: a short pilot run with the linear path records the per-time loss, and the schedule is set to the quantile function of this difficulty profile, so the trajectory lingers where the velocity is hardest to learn. The method has a single hyperparameter, leaves the training objective and its gradient equivalence intact, composes with classifier-free guidance, and adds about two percent training overhead. In controlled experiments on CIFAR-10, MNIST, and Fashion-MNIST with an identical compact U-Net, the calibrated path attains the best FID on CIFAR-10 at full sampling budget and clearly outperforms all fixed schedules in the large-batch, few-update regime, precisely the setting where compute is scarcest.
Generative models like diffusion and flow matching excel in traffic imputation but suffer from high inference latency, as the learned vector fields typically induce curved generative trajectories requiring multi-step numerical integration. Furthermore, learning the transformation from non-informative priors introduces redundant computational overhead. To address these issues, we propose Low-Rank Prior-Induced Consistency Flow Matching (LOFT) for efficient and effective distribution modeling under highly sparse data. First, we construct a low-rank prior from sparse observations to recover inherent spatiotemporal correlations. Initializing the flow with this informative prior reduces the mapping complexity, allowing the model to focus on fine-grained variations. Second, to enable efficient inference by linearizing generative trajectories, we introduce an uncertainty-aware rectification mechanism. This mechanism resolves the gradient conflict between improving accuracy and trajectory linearization by dynamically arbitrating the optimization trade-off based on the training progress and data uncertainty. Experimental results demonstrate that LOFT surpasses state-of-the-art baselines using an NFE (Number of Function Evaluations) of 2, whereas competing methods typically require 20 to 50 NFE, achieving over a 10× improvement in inference efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/maoxiaowei97/LOFT.
Xiaowei Mao, Tingrui Wu, Yawen Yang et al.· Proceedings of the 32nd ACM...· 0 citations
Missing labels are usually regarded as a source of information loss in classification. We study a semi-supervised setting in which the probability of label missingness depends on the observed features through posterior classification uncertainty. In this setting, the missingness indicator is not only a record of an unobserved label, but also an observable signal generated by a mechanism linked to the classifier. We develop a likelihood-based information theory for such uncertainty-dependent missing labels. Under correct specification, we derive a Fisher-information decomposition that separates a partial-labeling component from a nonnegative mechanism-curvature term. Under joint misspecification of the label model and the missingness mechanism, we obtain the corresponding Godambe--Eicker--Huber--White sensitivity and sandwich-covariance partitions. We also clarify the relevant complete-data benchmark: favorable missingness can increase information relative to ordinary fully labeled or budget-matched non-informative labeling baselines, but cannot exceed the information in the augmented experiment in which labels and mechanism indicators are both observed. For plug-in classifiers, we connect the information decomposition to margin-based excess-risk bounds. In regular two-component mixture settings this yields the parametric \(n^{-1}\) excess-risk rate, with constants determined by the nuisance-adjusted information in discriminant directions. Gaussian-mixture calculations and a medical diagnosis example illustrate how uncertainty-dependent labeling mechanisms can improve estimation and classification under a fixed labeling budget.
You‐Gan Wang, Jinran Wu, Geoffrey J. McLachlan· 0 citations
Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and missing completely conditionally at random (MCCAR) treatment data. Through asymptotic efficiency analysis, we prove that the MAR estimator, which leverages partially-observed units, is both valid and more efficient than the MCCAR estimator when MCCAR assumptions hold. This result provides formal justification for preferring MAR-based estimation in policy learning under both missing data settings. Our comprehensive experiments using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets confirm that correctly specifying the missingness mechanism is crucial: misspecified estimators remain biased regardless of sample size, while our estimators achieve near-oracle performance when assumptions are satisfied. Our work provides practitioners with theoretically grounded, empirically validated tools for robust policy learning in the presence of missing treatment data.
John P. Sundberg, Rayid Ghani, Eli Ben-Michael et al.· 0 citations
Discrete flow matching provides a flexible framework for generative modeling on discrete structures. However, the standard factorized training objective exposes the model to targets of varying difficulty, mixing well-conditioned, predictable tokens with ambiguous, high-entropy ones. We empirically demonstrate that the uncertainty over the value of each token is closely related to the density of available context in its neighborhood. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple modification to the underlying continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) that incorporates local context information. Our context-weighted sampler improves generation quality with negligible computational overhead, while our scaled cross-entropy loss function reweights the training signal from different tokens and reduces generative perplexity by up to 63% on OpenWebText. Moreover, our approach matches a strong semi-autoregressive block diffusion baseline in quality while retaining the ability to perform generation in any order. These results highlight the role of local context as an important factor in discrete generative modeling and show that simple context-aware modifications can significantly improve both sampling and training efficiency.
D. Cherniavskii, Daniel Severo, Karen Ullrich· 0 citations
Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments. This paper extends the PRTree framework to accommodate missing predictor values directly during tree construction, eliminating the need for prior imputation. Three strategies are proposed, each exploiting the available information differently: a uniform-probability approach, a partial-observation approach, and a dimension-reduced smoothing approach. These modifications are defined to preserve the fundamental probabilistic properties of the original methodology, including probability conservation and marginal compatibility, under arbitrary patterns of missing covariate values. The proposed methods are evaluated on several real-world datasets exhibiting different levels of missingness and are compared with classical regression trees. The results show that the effectiveness of probabilistic tree construction depends strongly on the treatment of missing observations. Across the considered datasets, the fill strategy emerged as the dominant modeling component, often exerting a larger influence on predictive performance than either the smoothing distribution or the proxy-selection criterion. In datasets where a substantial proportion of observations contained missing predictor values, the proposed methods frequently outperformed CART, while maintaining the interpretability and flexibility of tree-based models.