Globalization, Renewable Energy, and Ecological Footprint in a Resource-Dependent Economy: Evidence from the United Arab Emirates

Abstract

Understanding how globalization, energy transition, and resource dependence shape environmental pressure remains critical for resource-rich economies seeking sustainable development. This study investigates the determinants of ecological footprint per capita in the United Arab Emirates from 1992Q1 to 2020Q4 by extending the STIRPAT framework to incorporate scale effects, structural composition, technological mitigation, and a globalization–renewable energy interaction channel. The empirical strategy combines ARDL cointegration modeling, Ridge regression and annual frequency estimations for robustness assessment, wavelet coherence analysis, and ARDL-ECM Granger causality tests. The results show that economic growth increases ecological footprint in the short run, reflecting persistent affluence-related scale effects. In the long run, economic globalization and natural resource rents significantly increase ecological footprint, suggesting that trade- and hydrocarbon-driven composition effects outweigh potential efficiency gains during the study period. Renewable energy consumption exerts a negative long-run elasticity, indicating its technological mitigation role. However, the positive globalization–renewable energy interaction indicates that expanding economic integration partially offsets the environmental benefits associated with renewable energy deployment. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals that these relationships vary across time and frequency horizons, with globalization exhibiting leading associations with ecological pressure at medium-term frequencies, while Granger causality identifies significant predictive pathways toward ecological footprint dynamics. The findings remain consistent across robustness assessments and suggest that renewable energy contributes to reducing ecological pressure, but achieving substantial ecological decoupling requires both fossil fuel substitution and structural transformation in globalization and resource-dependent development pathways. This study provides evidence-based insights for supporting sustainability transitions in resource-dependent economies and advancing progress toward the SDGs.