Reference Traces for Auditing Invisible Weight Updates and Guiding Exact-Budget Protection

Abstract

Direct low-precision write-back can erase nonzero optimizer proposals. We ask what a high-precision reference trace establishes before a low-precision run. The exact target-code event is auditable coordinatewise on a realized target trajectory; pre-run aggregate projection also assumes the reference remains a useful counterfactual. In a controlled two-layer grid, 55/72 cells have measured and predicted post-initialization crossings: times span $384\times$, 52/55 are within 15\%, and 4/72 differ in category. Matched decoder experiments show stochastic rather than nearest write-back recovers most of the loss gap. A prospective analytic-grid E4M3 audit reuses one fp32 trace across three unseen NeoX-style seeds. It passes absolute-accuracy and skill gates (macro RMSE 0.00858) but fails directional specificity. In a target-outcome-blind comparison, a historical template has lower descriptive RMSE (0.00360) than the predeclared source predictor (0.00438); a post-outcome decomposition assigns 99.65\% of variation to common time, while a privileged matched-reference correction reaches 0.00283. Persistent-native Study~1 pairs three seeds across two schedules. Five cells are canonical; a manual sixth lacks canonical process identity, so the registered result remains inconclusive. A retrospective protocol-deviation analysis is negative because the complete constant-mid cohort is disjoint from the recovered cosine-restart cell. Study~2 reports mean full-SR/dead-zone-SR recoveries of 0.9766/0.9777 and a ratio of 1.0012, a policy contrast rather than causal mediation. Simulated-INT3 Study~3 replays six checkpoints and observes a 7.3071-nat (69.71\%) validation-loss reduction in one fixed seed. Exact events and write-back effects are auditable, but aggregate forecasts can reflect shared time rather than source-specific transfer.