Adaptive Governance of Disaster and Systemic Risks in Critical Energy Infrastructure: A Complex Adaptive Systems Perspective

Abstract

Critical energy infrastructure operates in an increasingly complex environment characterized by disaster risks, systemic risks, interdependencies, and uncertainty. Traditional approaches emphasizing regulatory compliance and technical protection are no longer sufficient to explain how infrastructure resilience is achieved under rapidly changing conditions. Drawing on Complex Adaptive Systems Theory, this study examines how adaptive governance contributes to managing disaster and systemic risks within critical energy infrastructure. A qualitative instrumental case study was conducted in Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), using semi-structured interviews with ten experts responsible for corporate security and critical infrastructure protection, complemented by document analysis. Data were analyzed through reflexive thematic analysis. The findings identify four interrelated governance dimensions: institutional coordination, public-private collaboration, adaptive organizational learning, and governance adaptation. Building on these findings, the study develops the Adaptive Governance Capacity Framework, conceptualized as the collective capability of interconnected public and private actors to coordinate, learn, exchange knowledge, and adapt governance processes in response to evolving disaster and systemic risks. The study contributes to the literature by integrating Critical Infrastructure Theory, Disaster Risk Governance, Collaborative Governance, Organizational Resilience, and Complex Adaptive Systems Theory into a coherent conceptual framework. The findings also provide practical implications for policymakers, infrastructure operators, and emergency management authorities responsible for strengthening resilience in complex critical infrastructure systems.