THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA: TRENDS, STRUCTURAL CHANGES, AND OUTLOOK TO 2030

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of the Russian e-commerce market and develops forecast scenarios for its development through 2030. Digitalization is fundamentally changing retail, but the Russian e-commerce market is entering a phase where old growth drivers (connecting to new audiences) have been exhausted. This poses a pressing question for researchers and practitioners: what happens next? Faced with saturation, new regulations, and aggressive marketplace policies, the market requires not just a forecast, but a systemic understanding of its structural limits. The aim of the study is to identify key trends and structural shifts in Russian e-commerce and develop a scenario forecast for market development through 2030. The study's methodological framework includes economic and statistical analysis, trend extrapolation, and scenario modeling. The forecasting framework is based on the logistic saturation function (Verhulst curve). The methodology is implemented as a six-step calculation algorithm. The main results of the study: a stable, multidirectional trend in the number of online orders and the average order value was identified; market growth was found to be extensive; three e-commerce market development scenarios (baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic) were developed. The theoretical significance of the study lies in testing a logistic approach to forecasting e-commerce market development under conditions of saturation. The practical significance lies in the potential use of the resulting scenarios for strategic planning by market participants—sellers, marketplaces, investors, and regulators.