Consider $n$ independent, non-negative, mean at most one random variables, $X_1,X_2,\ldots$. We show the following bound on the probability of their sum exceeding a threshold $t$: \[ \mathbb{P}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\ge t\right] \leq 1-\left(1-\frac{1}{t}\right)^n \text{ for all } t\ge 2n+1 \,. \] To prove this, we consider a relaxed optimization problem over a set of sequences of ordered, but non-independent random variables. This allows us to reformulate it recursively as dynamic programming problem. The bound becomes an equality for the binary i.i.d.~random variables satisfying $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=0\right]= 1-\frac{1}{t}$ and $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=t\right]=\frac{1}{t}$, which remains the maximizer in the relaxed problem.
Let $M_n$ be an $n\times n$ matrix with independent uniform sign entries. We prove that there exist absolute constants $C,c>0$ such that, for all sufficiently large $n$, \[ \mathbb{P}\!\left( \left|\operatorname{Per}(M_n)\right| \ge e^{-Cn}\sqrt{n!} \right) \ge 1-n^{-c}. \] Our proof tracks the total squared permanent of minors under successive row exposure. Up to $k=\lfloor n/2\rfloor$, the total squared permanent grows deterministically via the Boolean lattice up-operator; for larger $k$, the row exposure increments are governed by positive semidefinite Rademacher quadratic forms. Therefore, we confirms the exponential scale lower bound suggested by Tao and Vu.
Let $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be independent nonnegative random variables with $\mathbb{E} X_i\le1$, and write $S=\sum_iX_i$. For $\delta>0$, we prove that \[ \mathbb{P}\left(S<\mathbb{E} S+\delta\right)\ge b_{n,\delta}, \] where $b_{n,\delta}=\delta(n/(n+\delta))^n$ for $0<\delta<1$ and $b_{n,\delta}=(1-1/(n+\delta))^n$ for $\delta\ge1$. The bound is sharp for every $n$ and $\delta\ge 1$. In particular, since $b_{n,\delta} \ge e^{-1}$ for $\delta \ge 1$, our result proves Feige's conjecture [Feige, 2004] in the affirmative for $\delta\ge 1$. The proof is found by ChatGPT 5.6 Pro. It combines the exact Dirichlet calibration theorem of Vlassis and Thomas [Vlassis and Thomas, 2026], which resolves Gaffke's conjecture in statistics, with results in convex geometry including Gr\"unbaum's centroid theorem [Gr\"unbaum, 1960] and its generalization by Letwin and Yaskin [Letwin and Yaskin, 2024].
Weibo Fu, Yanjun Han, Guanyang Wang et al.· 7 citations· ⚡2
We determine exactly what a kurtosis bound buys for one-sided tail control. For the class $\mathcal{C}(\kappa)$ of real random variables with mean $0$, variance $1$, and fourth moment at most $\kappa$, the skewness left free, we compute the worst-case tail probability $V_1(t,\kappa)=\sup_{X\in\mathcal{C}(\kappa)}\mathbb{P}(X\geq t)$ for every threshold $t>0$ and every $\kappa\geq 1$. The answer is a four-regime map: a Cantelli tongue $b(\kappa)\le t\le c(\kappa)$ on which the two-moment bound $1/(1+t^2)$ remains tight and the kurtosis constraint is worthless; a tail regime $t\geq c(\kappa)$ with the closed form $V_1=(\kappa-1)/((t^2-1)^2+\kappa-1)$; a plateau regime, present only for $\kappa\le 3/2$, on which the worst case freezes and the value does not depend on $t$; and a central regime described exactly by an explicit algebraic system, provably admitting no closed form in nested square roots. Beyond $c(\kappa)$ the one-sided and two-sided worst cases coincide: Cantelli's improvement over Chebyshev is annihilated by fourth-moment information. The minimal degree of a sum-of-squares proof of the tight bound is $2$ on the closed tongue and $4$ everywhere else, an exact phase diagram of proof degree. Every closed-form regime carries an explicit dual certificate and an explicit extremal distribution, re-verified on parameter grids by an independent checker in exact arithmetic. The closed forms invert to exact worst-case quantiles, sharpen a median-of-means constant, and give the exact per-direction tail available to degree-4 reasoning under certifiable kurtosis. We found the map through an AI-guided search around the certifying pipeline, LemmaForge, which is validated on classical benchmarks, independently reproduces the symmetric-slice bound of Zelen (1954), and recovers the $2\sqrt{3}-3$ constant of He, Zhang, and Zhang (2010) at $t=0$.
Xiaoyu Li, Andi Han, Jiaojiao Jiang et al.· 0 citations
Let $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be independent nonnegative random variables, not necessarily identically distributed. Let $D=(D_0,D_1,\ldots,D_n)\sim\operatorname{Dir}(1,\ldots,1)$ be independent of $X$, and define $K(x)=\mathbb{P}\{\sum_{i=1}^n x_iD_i\le1\}$. We prove that, for every $n\ge1$, whenever $\mathbb{E} X_i\le1$ for every $i$, $\mathbb{P}\{K(X)\le\alpha\}\le\alpha$ for all $0\le\alpha\le1$. Thus $K(X)$ is a finite-sample, distribution-free $p$-value for testing the null hypothesis $\mathbb{E}X_i \le 1$ for all $i$. This proves a conjecture of Gaffke (2005).
For the $n\times n$ lower-triangular all-ones matrix $Q$, we prove a near-optimal lower bound \[ \gamma_{2,1}(Q) := \inf_{Q=AB} \|A\|_{2\to\infty}\|B\|_{1\to1} = \Omega\!\left( \frac{\log^{3/2}n}{(\log\log n)^{3/2}} \right), \] where the infimum ranges over real factorizations of arbitrary finite inner dimension. This cost is a central parameter in space bounds for factorization-based rank and quantile estimation in turnstile streams and in error bounds for matrix mechanisms for continual counting under pure differential privacy. The proof combines right-sided Haar projections with a scale-dependent numerical-sparsity decomposition of the rows of $B$. At each scale, a rank--Frobenius argument shows that the numerically sparse rows cannot account for all of the required Schatten $2/3$ mass, while a Haar projection estimate bounds the contribution of the remaining rows. Summing these bounds over the dyadic scales yields the result. The proof was obtained using a fully automated Gemini-based agentic system developed internally at Google. The authors verified the proof and made minor revisions.
Honghao Lin, V. Mirrokni, David P. Woodruff· 0 citations
Let $R$ be an $m\times m$ correlation matrix satisfying $R-\mathbf{1}\mathbf{1}^{\mathsf T}/m\succeq0$, let $X\sim\mathcal{N}(0,R)$, and let $Z_1,\ldots,Z_m$ be independent standard Gaussian random variables. We prove $\max_i X_i\leq_{\mathrm{st}}\max_i Z_i$, with equality in distribution if and only if $R=I_m$. We use this comparison to resolve the Weak Simplex Conjecture: among $d+1$ equiprobable equal-energy signals in $\mathbb{R}^d$ transmitted over an additive white Gaussian noise channel, the regular simplex is the unique maximizer of the average probability of correct maximum-likelihood decoding at every signal-to-noise ratio. The same comparison proves the Simplex Mean Width Conjecture and gives the exact finite-energy performance of deterministic no-feedback AWGN codes with equiprobable messages, no restriction on the number of channel uses, and a maximal per-codeword energy constraint. The proof uses a Gaussian product inequality for log-concave functions whose first moments with respect to standard Gaussian measure vanish. A variational argument chooses one exponential tilt and one truncation endpoint in each coordinate so that this product inequality applies and a Gaussian change of measure returns all coordinates to the prescribed common threshold. A strict form of the product inequality also shows that, unless $R=I_m$, $\mathbb{P}\{X\leq c\mathbf{1}\}>\Phi(c)^m$ for every finite $c$, and hence gives the distributional equality statement. A Lean formalization is available at https://github.com/abhmul/weak-simplex-conjecture-lean.