Russia–Ukraine War–Implications For West Africa’s Regional Security

Abstract

This study examines the implications of the Russian–Ukraine war for regional security in West Africa. The conflict, which began in 2022, has transcended its geographical boundaries to reshape global political and economic relations, revealing how interconnected and vulnerable regional systems have become in the twenty-first century. Adopting a qualitative research design, the study utilized data from scholarly publications, institutional reports, and verified media sources to trace the indirect but profound impact of the conflict on political stability, food security, foreign military influence, and regional cooperation in West Africa. Through this approach, the research offered a contextual understanding of how global power rivalries and supply chain disruptions translate into local insecurity, economic strain, and institutional fragility within the sub-region. The findings of the study indicate that the Russian–Ukraine war has had far-reaching effects on West Africa, primarily through economic, security, and geopolitical channels. It revealed that disruptions in global food and energy supply chains have intensified inflation, public discontent, and operational challenges for already underfunded security forces. The inability of several West African governments to cushion these shocks has heightened citizens’ frustrations, deepened inequality, and strained national cohesion. These pressures have allowed violent non-state actors to strengthen their foothold in rural and ungoverned areas, where weak state presence has created vacuums for parallel systems of governance. In these spaces, insurgent and extremist groups exploit socio-economic despair to consolidate control, thereby expanding the geography of insecurity across national borders. Furthermore, the study identified that the vacuum created by reduced Western engagement enabled Russia, through the Wagner Group, to expand its influence, often in exchange for political loyalty from transitional regimes. This shift in external alignment has marked a major reconfiguration of regional power relations, where regimes facing legitimacy crises increasingly turn to alternative global partners for survival. The study also found that cyber vulnerabilities and disinformation, influenced by Russian hybrid tactics, are increasingly shaping the information environment in West Africa. The study concluded that while the Russia–Ukraine war is not occurring on African soil, its consequences have destabilized already fragile states in West Africa, amplified governance weaknesses, and exposed the region’s structural dependency on global markets. It emphasized that these challenges, if left unchecked, could further undermine socio-political cohesion and regional stability. In response, the study recommends a regional strategy that prioritizes democratic accountability, economic diversification, and collective security frameworks. ECOWAS and the African Union must enhance their coordination, invest in cyber resilience, and develop community-centered counterterrorism policies that reflect local realities.