Agroforestry systems as a climate resilience strategy in family farming in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract

The climate crisis poses significant challenges to agriculture, particularly in developing countries, where food security depends heavily on family farming. In Minas Gerais (MG), one of the Brazilian states with the largest areas of family farming and planted forests, the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly evident. In this context, agroforestry systems (AFS) represent a sustainable alternative, promoting greater climate resilience. This study analysed the relationship between climate vulnerability and the adoption of AFS in Minas Gerais, considering the vulnerability components defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using an extensive dataset comprising socioeconomic, environmental and climatic variables, the study investigated how vulnerability and historical climatic variables influence the adoption of AFS by family farmers. The analysis was conducted using a Logit model, and the main results indicate a statistically significant correlation between climate vulnerability and the adoption of AFS, suggesting that climate vulnerability is an important factor associated with the adoption of agroforestry systems. An increase in vulnerability raised the probability of AFS adoption by 1.5%. This relationship may be explained by the greater need for adaptation in more vulnerable areas, which face more intense climatic risks. These findings provide empirical evidence on the relationship between climate vulnerability and the adoption of agroforestry systems, offering useful insights for the design of climate adaptation policies targeting family farming. These results contribute to a better understanding of the factors associated with agroforestry adoption and may support the design of policies aimed at strengthening climate adaptation among family farmers.