Integrating climate projections and hydrological modeling for sustainable water management in a major indian peninsular basin

Abstract

Agriculture and fisheries play vital roles in sustaining livelihoods, whereas they are frequently suffered by recurring floods in the Wainganga basin of the Indian Peninsula. The climate change and unsustainable practices have significantly affected these livelihoods. The present study examines changing climate impacts on hydrological mechanisms in the Wainganga basin, precisely Kumhari, Ramakona, and Ashti using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Before applying the SWAT model, it was calibrated (1996–2008) and validated (2009–2013) with warm-up period of 3 years (i.e., from 1993 to 1995) using observed data, projecting future streamflow with NEX-GDDP RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The outcomes reveal complex dynamic scenarios. It is projected that precipitation (3%–9%), surface runoff (23%–31%), and lateral flow (18%–29%) will increase in future, however, both evapotranspiration (ET) (16%–17%) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) (17%–18%) are expected to decline in compare to baseline period. This hydrological shift alters the localized water equilibrium and is modulated primarily by changes in relative humidity and wind velocity, while temperature and precipitation show upward trends. The findings of the present study contribute to the understanding of future water availability and management strategies in the face of climate variability and change.