Sustainable Supply Chain Resilience Assessment Based on Fuzzy Bayesian-ANP

Abstract

Against the backdrop of increasing global uncertainty and the growing acceptance of sustainable development principles, enhancing supply chain resilience has become a core issue for enterprises in managing risks and ensuring operational security. Based on a review of the literature and theoretical analysis, this study constructs an evaluation system comprising 12 third-level indicators across three dimensions: proactive defense capability, green operational capability, and collaborative recovery capability. When determining whether there are interdependent relationships among the indicators, this study introduces an extended Bayesian fusion method based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to evaluate and confirm these relationships, thereby reducing biases arising from subjective judgments. By quantifying experts’ assessments of the relationship strength and confidence levels between indicators using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, this method effectively integrates the opinions of multiple experts, reducing the randomness and subjectivity associated with individual judgments. During the ANP weight calculation stage, to overcome the ambiguity and uncertainty inherent in traditional pairwise expert comparisons, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers were similarly used to quantify the comparison results. These were then defuzzified using the mean area metric to construct a precise judgment matrix. Finally, using the publicly available annual reports and ESG disclosure data from three multinational corporations—one in the semiconductor manufacturing sector (Company T), one in industrial digital manufacturing (Company S), and one in the food and beverage industry (Company N)—as empirical samples, the cross-industry applicability and validity of the constructed evaluation system were verified. The results demonstrate that this method can systematically reflect the key factors influencing sustainable supply chain resilience and their weighting structure.