Skip to content
Log in
#machine learning Review

Which CS1 Students Will Fail? Identifying Digital Markers from Learning Analytics in Computer Systems and Architecture Using Weighted Academic Momentum and Interaction Logs

Lighton Phiri Mutune Chaibela Ivy Chisha David Pungwa Danny Siabbaba Bydon Simukoko
Jul 2026 · 0 citations · 12 references
Computer Science

TL;DR

Results demonstrate that simple digital markers can power a practical early-warning system by the fifth week of the semester, and confirm that weighted academic momentum is the strongest predictor, followed by its interaction with LMS engagement.

Abstract

Digital learning platforms generate rich behavioural traces (digital markers) that offer the potential to identify struggling students early. This paper investigates whether a combination of traditional and digital markers can predict failure in a first-year CS1 course (Computer Systems and Architecture) with sufficient recall to enable timely intervention. Using data from four cohorts (2017-2021, N=284) at a large public university in sub-Saharan Africa, we conducted a mixed-methods stakeholder elicitation to identify ten candidate factors. These were operationalised into a comprehensive feature set spanning demographics, self-reported surveys, Moodle interaction logs, and continuous assessment scores. A systematic ablation study using logistic regression with 5-fold cross-validation and SMOTE+ENN resampling revealed that the most predictive feature subset was Base + Demo + LMS: weighted academic momentum (M = 0.1Q1 + 0.15Q2 + 0.2Q3 + 0.55T1), basic demographics (gender, sponsorship, COVID-19 cohort), and a binary indicator of any LMS activity. On a held-out test set, logistic regression achieved 74.7% accuracy, 0.742 macro F1, and an AUC of 0.800. At the default threshold of 0.5, the model identified 87% of failing students (recall = 0.87) with a 41% false positive rate. SHAP analysis confirmed that weighted academic momentum is the strongest predictor, followed by its interaction with LMS engagement. These results demonstrate that simple digital markers can power a practical early-warning system by the fifth week of the semester. Our main contributions are: (1) a multi-source dataset and a stakeholder-guided methodology; (2) an ablation study quantifying feature group contributions; and (3) an interpretable, high-recall model ready for deployment.

arXiv Semantic Scholar
View source

Similar papers

#machine learning Open access Oct 2020

Physics-Informed and Hybrid Machine Learning in Additive Manufacturing: Application to Fused Filament Fabrication

This article investigates several physics-informed and hybrid machine learning strategies that incorporate physics knowledge in experimental data-driven deep-learning models for predicting the bond quality and porosity of fused filament fabrication (FFF) parts. Three types of strategies are explored to incorporate physics constraints and multi-physics FFF simulation results into a deep neural network (DNN), thus ensuring consistency with physical laws: (1) incorporate physics constraints within the loss function of the DNN, (2) use physics model outputs as additional inputs to the DNN model, and (3) pre-train a DNN model with physics model input-output and then update it with experimental data. These strategies help to enforce a physically consistent relationship between bond quality and tensile strength, thus making porosity predictions physically meaningful. Eight different combinations of the above strategies are investigated. The results show how the combination of multiple strategies produces accurate machine learning models even with limited experimental data.

B. Kapusuzoglu, S. Mahadevan · 79 citations · ⚡2
#machine learning Jan 2024

Spikformer V2: Join the High Accuracy Club on ImageNet with an SNN Ticket

This work introduces a pioneering exploration of Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) within the SNN, and proposes a novel Spiking Self-Attention (SSA) and Spiking Transformer (Spikformer) that achieves 80+% accuracy on ImageNet.

Zhaokun Zhou, Kaiwei Che, Wei Fang et al. · 69 citations · ⚡10
#machine learning Open access May 2021

Information fusion and machine learning for sensitivity analysis using physics knowledge and experimental data

This paper considers global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for situations where both a physics-based model and experimental observations are available, and investigates physics-informed machine learning strategies to effectively combine the two sources of information in order to maximize the accuracy of the sensitivity estimate.

B. Kapusuzoglu, S. Mahadevan · 45 citations
#machine learning Conference Open access Feb 2023

EquiPocket: an E(3)-Equivariant Geometric Graph Neural Network for Ligand Binding Site Prediction

EquiPocket is proposed, an E(3)-equivariant Graph Neural Network for binding site prediction, which comprises three modules: the first one to extract local geometric information for each surface atom, the second one to model both the chemical and spatial structure of protein and the last one to capture the geometry of the surface via equivariant message passing over the surface atoms.

Yang Zhang, Wenbing Huang, Zhewei Wei et al. · 43 citations · ⚡4
#artificial intelligence Open access Oct 2022

Adaptive surrogate modeling for high-dimensional spatio-temporal output

An adaptive surrogate modeling method for problems with very high-dimensional spatio-temporal outputs is developed that combines exploration and exploitation to improve the surrogate model accuracy with the fewest possible runs of the expensive physics-based model.

B. Kapusuzoglu, S. Mahadevan, Shunsaku Matsumoto et al. · 17 citations
#machine learning Open access Nov 2022

Doubly robust nearest neighbors in factor models

An improved variant of nearest neighbors (NN) for estimation with missing data in latent factor models that provides a (near-)quadratic improvement in the non-asymptotic error and admits a significantly narrower asymptotic confidence interval when compared to both unit-unit or time-time NN.

Raaz Dwivedi, Katherine Tian, Sabina Tomkins et al. · 11 citations

Related blog posts

MIT News · Artificial Intelligence Aug 27, 2026

Looking beyond natural sequences

A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.