Mycotoxin Risk in Transition: Climate Change, Emerging Diets, and Adaptive Mitigation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change and dietary transition are reshaping mycotoxin exposure pathways and challenging current food safety frameworks. This review examines how shifts in fungal ecology, together with the increasing adoption of plant-based and alternative protein systems, are influencing the occurrence and distribution of mycotoxins. The review also explores emerging mitigation approaches, including biological control, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence-based predictive systems. Recent evidence indicates that changing environmental conditions are altering the geographical distribution and toxicological profiles of several mycotoxins, including aflatoxins, fumonisins, and Alternaria toxins. At the same time, the expansion of plant-based meat and dairy alternatives may modify dietary exposure patterns due to the increased use of cereals and legumes susceptible to fungal contamination. Emerging studies further suggest that the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, including fungicides and biological control agents, may become increasingly dependent on environmental variability. Advances in predictive modelling and artificial intelligence are also improving the capacity to anticipate contamination risk by integrating climatic variables, agronomic information, and contamination records to support early warning systems and more adaptive mycotoxin risk management. Mycotoxin exposure should increasingly be considered a climate-sensitve and diet-mediated food safety challenge. Current regulatory and monitoring frameworks may not fully capture emerging exposure scenarios associated with changing fungal ecology, co-occuring toxins, and novel food systems. Future progress will require integrated risk assessment, harmonised surveillance strategies, and adaptive mitigation approaches capable of responding to evolving environmental and dietary conditions.